Missouri job numbers revised upward

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- A miscalculation by state economic analysts means Missouri's economic picture for the summer is brighter than originally thought.

The state's job report for July showed it led the nation in percentage of lost jobs, losing 1.9 percent of its seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll. The loss of 51,700 positions also led the country in terms of total jobs that disappeared.

But now, it seems, that wasn't really the case. Missouri's job loss figures have been revised to now show a loss of 23,200 jobs from June to July, and could be revised further.

The reason? Missouri analysts had been counting public school teachers among those without jobs in the summer months. The federal Labor Department's policy is to count them among the employed, because they have jobs and will return to them in the fall.

Missouri Department of Economic Development Director Kelvin Simmons said the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics never told Missouri officials they were counting teachers differently than other states.

"We did not know how we looked in comparison to the rest of the country," Simmons said on Thursday.

Federal labor officials said it's important that the figures each state reports follow the same set of rules, to ensure job comparisons are sound. Labor Department economist Ken Shipp said it's been a policy to count teachers among the employed for many years.

Missouri apparently has been counting teachers differently for a few years, but the discrepancy in month-to-month numbers was so obvious this summer it got attention from both the Missouri Economic Development Department and federal labor analysts.

Missouri's June jobs report had been among the best in the nation.

State economic development officials said the change occurred when federal labor officials starting counting public school teachers in the category of government employment, rather than its own sector.

Marty Romitti, director of the Missouri Economic Research and Information Center, said the state didn't realize it was going against federal labor policy. He said state analysts decided that using payroll figures from unemployment insurance records rather than statistical samples would give officials a better gauge of the state's economy. Unemployment insurance records do not include teachers when they're not in school.

"There was never a conscious decision (that) they want us to do it this way and we're going to disregard that," he said.

Missouri economic analysts plan to start counting teachers out for the summer as employed in the future.

Federal and state officials said they don't expect Missouri to lose, or gain, any federal funds as a result of the improving job numbers, partly because employment data is revised annually, and the overall unemployment rate likely won't change.

"The end result is usually accurate, so it's not a skewed situation," Simmons said.

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On the Net:

Missouri Department of Economic Development: http://www.ded.mo.gov/