Missouri House speaker quiets congressional concern over redistricting

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- These are uncertain times for Missouri's congressional delegation.

With the pending loss of one of the nine seats Missouri occupies in Congress, congressional staff offices and the Internet are abuzz with the latest rumors, innuendo and expert opinion about where the district lines in Missouri will be drawn.

And who will lose their seat.

Into this stew of angst and paranoia last week came visitors from the west with a message: Relax.

Speaker of the House Steven Tilley popped up on Capitol Hill on Monday with Redistricting Committee chairman John Diehl, R-Town and Country, to encourage patience and open communication. Besides, Tilley said, he had never met Rep. Emanuel Cleaver and Rep. Vicky Hartzler.

All nine members of the Missouri congressional delegation and members of their staffs were there, and Tilley told those assembled there wasn't much to be discussed ... yet.

"We said listen, there's rumors and there's blogs out there that John and I already have a map and that's it's already been determined who's going to be out of a job, and that's just not the case. We don't even have the [census] numbers yet," Tilley said.

Congressmen and women who may have given little thought to local politicians such as Tilley and Diehl now have their futures in their hands.

"Our intent was to go up and visit with them, sit down and let them know that this would be an open, transparent process and we look forward to working with all the congressional delegation, Republicans and Democrats," Tilley said.

At the beginning of the week, Tilley said it could be late March before the figures come in, but he said census officials indicated that they may try to get the figures to states that are eliminating or adding districts sooner, maybe as soon as mid-February.

"Look, going from nine to eight, I mean, it goes without saying, at least one person is not going to be happy," Tilley said. "And you start looking at the numbers ... it's going to be more than one person."

Tilley estimated each representative will pick up nearly 100,000 new voters. And the likelihood is that each new district will include a lot of unfamiliar territory for the sitting representative.

Tilley said that in past years, the congressional delegation had been given broad latitude to work among themselves to rework boundary lines that would be most advantageous to them. But with one of the seats going away, the game has changed.

"In the past, they would all kind of sit down and horse trade, so to speak, and come up with a map and say they all signed on to it," said Tilley. "From a tactical standpoint, that can't happen this time around."

Tilley said pressure from interest groups within parties will make it impossible for the sitting delegation to have much meaningful input. That means, in the Missouri House, the pressure falls on Diehl, the former chairman of the St. Louis County Board of Election Commissioners, and his committee. Sen. Scott Rupp, R-St. Charles, heads up the Senate redistricting committee.

"It's not an easy process, and I've tapped someone that I think is talented enough to do the job, and I think that John, with his background and experience, he's going to do a fine job," Tilley said.

Possibilities for district layouts abound. Population loss in north Missouri could lead to the merging of the 6th and 9th districts. Five of the nine districts in Missouri touch on mid-Missouri's 4th District. With each needing to expand to encompass more voters, the 4th could be dissolved. And shifting population in St. Louis leaves the possibility that the 1st and 3rd could be merged into a single district.

"All those scenarios, I've heard, and some of those scenarios were discussed [at the Washington meeting] because they had seen them in the newspaper and on blogs," Tilley said.

"One of our goals was to just say 'settle down, there hasn't been anything decided, we don't know the numbers,' and once we get the numbers, we look forward to working with their staff and the individual congressmen."

Stiff upper lip

With a Republican-dominated legislature drawing the boundary lines and with a district that borders on three districts currently held by Republican congressmen and a fourth that's held by powerful Democrat Lacey Clay, many political pundits have pegged 3rd District congressman Russ Carnahan as the odd man out. At an appearance in Jefferson City, Mo., last week, Carnahan kept a stiff upper lip.

"I feel like there's a process in place here, and I'm happy to work with the leaders in the legislature to get it done," Carnahan said.

Carnahan said he doesn't feel like he is being singled out by a political process.

"That's not what the Constitution says," Carnahan said. "There's a constitutional duty for legislators to work through the process and we've met as a delegation, and just as we did 10 years ago, I think we'll find some common ground to work together and get it done."