Midwest economy: State-by-state glance for October

The Institute for Supply Management, formerly the Purchasing Management Association, began formally surveying its membership in 1931 to gauge business conditions.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group uses the same methodology as the national survey to consult supply managers and business leaders. Creighton University economics professor Ernie Goss oversees the report.

The overall index ranges between 0 and 100. Growth neutral is 50, and a figure greater than 50 indicates an expanding economy over the next three to six months.

Here are the state-by-state results of the October survey in the Mid-America region:

Arkansas: The October overall index plummeted to 42.3 from September's 49.6. Components of the index were new orders at 34.3, production or sales at 37.3, delivery lead time at 50.1, inventories at 50.2 and employment at 39.5. According to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, even though the state's unemployment rate declined in September, Arkansas lost jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis, Goss said. Discouraged job seekers left the workforce in September as well. "Our results indicate that this trend continued in October and is likely to persist for the next three to six months," he said.

Iowa: Iowa's overall index dropped to 54.2 from 56.5 in September. Components of the overall index for October were new orders at 57.1, production or sales at 50.4, delivery lead time at 53.9, employment at 53.2 and inventories at 52.8. "While our survey of Iowa businesses over the past several months have been positive and pointing to reduced unemployment and job gains, they have not been nearly as robust as (federal) data indicate," Goss said. He expects the federal numbers to be revised upward in the months ahead.

Kansas: The overall index rose to a still weak 47.9 from September's 47.3. Components of the index were new orders at 42.7, production or sales at 46.6, delivery lead time at 48.4, employment at 63.8 and inventories at 38.0. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said the state's unemployment rate plunged in September, Goss said, but "our surveys of Kansas businesses over the past several months have been much less positive and not nearly as robust as BLS data indicate." He expects higher Kansas unemployment data in the months ahead as the state's economic growth cools.

Minnesota: For a fourth straight month, the overall Minnesota index remained below growth neutral. The index dipped to 47.1 in October from 47.2 in September. Components of the index were new orders at 36.3, production or sales at 39.3, delivery lead time at 61.9, inventories at 50.1 and employment at 47.9. "U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that the state lost manufacturing jobs in September even as the unemployment rate declined," Goss said. "Our surveys indicate that Minnesota continued to lose manufacturing jobs in October. I expect these jobs losses to persist, though at a slight pace, in the months ahead."

Missouri: The overall Missouri index slipped to 50.0 from 51.0 in September. Components of the overall index were new orders at 48.4, production or sales at 51.0, delivery lead time at 55.9, inventories at 41.7 and employment at 52.9. "Missouri is one of four states in the region that did not experience an overall index reading below growth neutral for the month," Goss said. Strong growth in durable-goods manufacturing has more than offset weakness among nondurable-goods producers. Nonetheless, job growth for the next three to six months will be weaker than for the same period a year ago, he said.

Nebraska: For the third time in the past four months, Nebraska's overall index computed to below growth neutral. Number dropped to 45.5 from September's 50.3. Components of the index for October were new orders at 39.8, production or sales at 41.1, delivery lead time at 52.9, inventories at 49.5 and employment at 44.0. Stronger growth among durable-goods producers prevented the overall index from sinking lower. Nondurable-goods producers, including food processors, "are experiencing pullbacks in economic activity," Goss said. Job growth will be slightly negative in the next three to six months, according to recent survey results, he said.

North Dakota: The overall index hit a regional high of 64.1 in October, compared with 61.6 in September. Components of North Dakota's overall index were new orders at 68.8, production or sales at 70.7, delivery lead time at 57.1, employment at 67.8 and inventories at 56.3. "Each month, employment in North Dakota rises to record levels for the state," Goss said.

Oklahoma: The overall Oklahoma index soared to 63.3 from 56.6 in September. Components of the index were new orders at 77.4, production or sales at 74.8, delivery lead time at 39.3, inventories at 71.0 and employment at 54.2. "Even as Oklahoma's economy has expanded at a solid pace, we are tracking somewhat weaker, but positive, job growth," Goss said. Companies in the state report shortages of skilled labor even as some firms cut jobs.

South Dakota: For a fourth straight month, the overall index for South Dakota came in below growth neutral. The index slipped to 45.3 from 46.6 in September. Components of the overall index for October were new orders at 51.4, production or sales at 55.3, delivery lead time at 50.0, inventories at 27.7 and employment at 42.0. The state has had virtually no job growth this year, Goss said. And, he said, "Our surveys point to slightly negative employment growth for the next three to six months."

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