Mideast unrest affects U.S. counterterrorism efforts

WASHINGTON -- The unrest engulfing Arab streets and threatening authoritarian governments in the Mideast is complicating U.S. counterterrorism efforts, scrambling the volatile battleground against al-Qaida in Yemen and raising concerns about the durability of Egypt's stance against militants.

U.S. counterterrorism officials need to move quickly to firm up relationships with veteran Mideast intelligence and security services in the aftermath of momentous changes, experts say. Lingering confusion over who will take the reins of power could hamper instant decision-making in the short term.

Over the longer term, the question is if the U.S. will be able to work as closely against al-Qaida and other terrorist groups if allies such as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh cede power to Islamist groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood.

"Right now the situation is so fluid it's just about impossible to make any determinations about long-term repercussions," said Roger Cressey, a former counterterrorism deputy in the Clinton and second Bush administrations.

"The counterterrorism community has to be cautious about even jumping six months ahead."

Uncertainty about whether the U.S. can depend on Arab allies to join against militants comes amid growing American concerns following a string of failed attacks plotted in Yemen and al-Qaida's home base inside Pakistan.

Less reliance on Mideast partners could force the U.S. to strike back on its own there, if a future terrorist attack were to succeed.

American political leaders have long fused counterterror aims with support for Israel, and contending with an altered Mideast landscape with rising Islamic factions could force hard choices.

"We'll have to struggle with this politically, especially as we go into an election year," said Phillip Mudd, a former CIA and FBI official who was deputy director of the CIA's Counterterrorist Center and now is a senior adviser with Oxford Analytica, a consulting firm. "The tension is between the need to work with these groups to continue the fight against (al-Qaida) and other extreme elements and the possibility that they may go against our wishes when it comes to Israel. Europe is less political and more realistic when it comes to that tension but it may be more of a problem here."

Despite the likely tensions looming, Mudd and some other terrorism experts say the turbulence in Cairo, Sana'a and elsewhere in the Mideast and North Africa raises hopes that al-Qaida's momentum may be overtaken by democratic impulses.

"Al-Qaida sees themselves as revolutionaries," Mudd said. "But the rise of the pro-democracy protests on the Arab street might take the air out of the balloon in terms of their recruiting. It siphons off their youth recruits."