Merchants happy with pace of holiday buying

Merchants were full of good cheer Friday as they got a feel for consumers on the official opening of the holiday shopping season: They're buying as least as much as last year, and many are even paying retail.

Early-bird specials on TVs and DVD players and hot toys like Bratz and Barbies wooed many to the nation's malls and stores. But some retail executives said shoppers also were buying regular-priced goods, a stark difference from last year, when consumers stuck to bargain-hunting.

There were scattered outbreaks of holiday-shopping craziness. When the doors of a Wal-Mart store in Marietta, Ga., opened at 6 a.m., hundreds of people jammed inside, some losing their shoes, others running at full speed with their carts to stake a claim to discounted items.

With the economy on the rebound, the labor market improving and consumer confidence on the rise, merchants like Sears, Roebuck and Co., office supplies retailer Staples, K-B Toys, and several major mall operators reported that traffic and business as of Friday afternoon were at least as healthy as a year ago.

The big question is whether consumers will keep spending throughout the season.

Last year's holiday sales were mediocre despite strong Thanksgiving weekend sales. Consumers, spooked by the prospect of war in Iraq and a spate of corporate layoffs, delayed the rest of their buying until the very end of the season to get the best bargains.

Wally Brewster, a spokesman at General Growth Properties, which owns and manages 166 malls in 39 states, said business Friday was up from a year ago by a percentage in the high single digits.

Some retailers -- particularly department stores and apparel merchants like Bloomingdale's and Bergdorf Goodman -- plan to be stingier with markdowns than in the past, a strategy many analysts don't think will last. Merchants are counting on consumers to be so pleased with new services and exclusive merchandise that they'll be willing to pay full price.

Karen MacDonald, a spokeswoman at Bloomfield Hills, Mich.-based Taubman Centers, which owns or manages 31 shopping centers in 13 states, said sales and traffic were better than a year ago, and that there was "plenty of full-price selling."

Stores have steeled themselves for a shopping letdown, with inventories that average 7 percent below last year's levels.

No must-have item has emerged this season, although the best sellers in toys include Fisher-Price's Hokey Pokey Elmo, Spin Master's Mighty Beanz collectible plastic toys, MGA Entertainment's Bratz dolls and Mattel's Hot Wheels T-Wrecks playset.

Michael Niemira, vice president of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Ltd., predicted a sales gain of 4.5 percent for the November-December period, the best performance since 1999, when the tally rose 5.4 percent. He based the estimate on sales from stores open at least a year, considered the best indicator of a retailer's health.

Last holiday season's results were unchanged from 2001.

The Washington-based National Retail Federation projected total holiday sales to rise 5.7 percent to $217.4 billion.