LEADING EDGE OF TEACHER SHORTAGE CLOSES IN

A long-predicted teacher shortage may be coming if data in a statewide survey proves to be the leading edge of a trend.

Administrators say shortages already exist in some specialized areas including special education, chemistry, physics and counseling.

Southwest Missouri State University annually surveys the teacher supply and demand in Missouri. This year's report shows demand up and supply down.

Demand for new teachers hit a seven-year high, with seven out of 10 regions of Missouri hiring more teachers in 1992-93 than in 1991-92.

At the same time, the study shows that the supply of new teachers dropped 5 percent from 1991-92 to 1992-93. The supply of new elementary teachers dropped 3 percent; the supply of new secondary teachers dropped 9.6 percent.

At the beginning of the 1993-94 school year, 125.34 teaching positions were vacant, up from 109 in 1992-93. Leading in this category were positions for speech language specialists and elementary counselors.

Local administrators warn that this study could reflect the tip of an iceberg. The number of teachers in the workforce could drop dramatically if teachers and administrators who have reached retirement age decide to leave the profession.

"We have been seeing a shortage of teachers," said Lenore Bierbaum, dean of the College of Education at Southeast Missouri State University. "And we know there are lots and lots of people out there in their 50s who have their 30 years in and could be retiring. If you talk to principals, they say, `Half my staff could retire in the next five years.'

"We have tried to guess when it's going to happen," she said. "It could be that the Southwest report is showing the leading edge of this."

Jerry McAllister, director of certification and field experiences at Southeast Missouri State, said he hasn't seen signs of a full fledged teacher shortage -- yet.

"It's always just around the corner," McAllister said. "It only takes a year or two to go from a surplus to a shortage or vice versa."

Southeast has steadily been graduating about 205 to 215 teachers with their initial certification. Additional students graduate with specialized degrees or masters or specialist degrees.

However, he said, the economy seems to be affecting the demand side of the equation.

"If money is available for education, districts that have been holding back, increasing class size and not hiring teachers, would break loose and hire some teachers."

McAllister said some fields in education historically have experienced shortages.

"There have always been shortages in special education, some areas of science like chemistry and physics, foreign languages," he said. "Speech and communication teachers are always in tremendous demand."

However, he said, for an elementary teacher the job market might be a little tougher.

"We recommend to our elementary people that they take an area of endorsement in another area like special education or gifted education. Then they are more marketable."

Neyland Clark, superintendent of Cape Girardeau public schools, believes the shortage is on the horizon.

"We enjoy the luxury of having Southeast Missouri State University in our backyard and the luxury of having an educational reputation throughout Southeast Missouri. People want to come to work here," he said.

"We get a number of applications for teaching positions. However, we're finding it more increasingly difficult to find the top quality teachers we want, particularly in the area of science and math.

"We constantly work toward recruiting minority teachers, but we're having a tough time competing with St. Louis and Kansas City."

Clark said the school district has had some trouble recruiting chemistry and physics teachers and special education teachers.

He fears the worst is yet to come. "There are some forces working within the economic marketplace that may lead to a shortage," he said. "Teaching today is much more difficult than it was 20 years ago. And criticism of public education takes a toll.

"At the same time, we are working to lower class sizes, which means we have to hire more teachers."

The Cape Girardeau superintendent added that states across the country, particularly in the Midwest, are implement early retirement programs.

"When you need more teachers in the first place and you have the tremendous stress on teachers, and then you give them an out to take, I think we are starting to see a big wave of teachers who entered the system 20 to 25 years ago, leaving," said Clark.

"Today's schools of education are not getting the same enrollments they had 20 to 25 years ago. There are just not enough new teachers."

Larry Beshears, superintendent at Delta schools, is looking for a music teacher to instruct students from kindergarten through 12th grade. "So far, I'm not finding an abundance," he said. "But a K-12 music position is not the most desirous situation."

Beshears said he has some good candidates for the spot. He's more concerned about a secondary school principal he must hire.

"In my opinion, good candidates for administrative positions are much tougher to find. I think we will see a real shortage of administrators in the next few years," Beshears said.

Jerry Deardorff, superintendent at Marquand Zion R-VI, agrees that the shortage may fall with administrators. "So far this spring I've gotten about 50 letters on superintendent openings. I'm getting three to five a week. That's unusual."

Sister Mary Ann Fischer, principal at Notre Dame High School, is looking to hire one teacher to teach both science and math -- a tough combination.

"These applicants are short in coming," Fischer said. "We do have a full-time English position, but we have a lot of applications for that."

Fischer said the open positions at her school are due to increased enrollment.

"I'm concerned about the number of students graduating who are certified in only one field. Especially in Missouri, there are not that many big, urban schools. There are a lot of small, rural schools, and so many places need a combination teacher."