LAST MONTH ALMOST AS WARM AS RECORD OF NOVEMBER 1990

Temperatures one meteorologist termed "downright pleasant" have some Southeast Missouri residents ditching their heavy coats in favor of lighter jackets.

But Dr. Al Robertson, a climatologist and professor of earth science at Southeast Missouri State University, said the fall people perceive as warm and dry actually has been cool and wet, on the average.

For example, the 45-year average temperature for Cape Girardeau in September is 70.5 This year's average was three degrees cooler. The same held true in October, with a long-term average of 59.2 degrees. The average for last October was 56.3 degrees.

The trend changed in November. On Wednesday, Robertson estimated this year's average temperature would be 52 degrees. The long-term average is much cooler, at 46.9.

"We're going to miss the 1990 record for the warmest November by three-tenths of a degree," Robertson said.

Usually the polar jet stream dips into Southeast Missouri at this time of year, lowering temperatures. It hasn't done it so far, so the subtropical jet stream, with its warmer temperature, dominates.

Fall 1994 came in as the 14th wettest in 76 years, with 14.73 inches of precipitation over September, October and November. More rain and snow fell last year, however, resulting in 19 inches over the three months.

The National Weather Service predicted things will stay warmer but get wetter as winter progresses.

Meteorologist Roy Eckberg, based in St. Charles, noted that St. Louis usually gets its first frost by Oct. 26. This year, it didn't appear until Nov. 22. The temperature even rose to a balmy 78 degrees on Nov. 3.

"For this week, we will be looking at above-normal temperatures," Eckberg said. "Actually, it will be downright pleasant, but things will cool down toward the weekend."

The NWS 30-day outlook for this region calls for a 60 percent chance of above-normal temperatures and a 55-percent chance of above-normal precipitation. There may be the occasional cold snap, Eckberg said.

Of course, the biggest question is whether it will be cold enough for a white Christmas. No one can say for sure, Eckberg said, but don't bank on it.

"The chances are close to zero for a white Christmas in this part of the country," Eckberg said. "But you could get one cold snap and one certain weather pattern and end up with two feet of snow."