Just don't add water

The sandbags can stay in storage, at least for now. But river and weather watchers, especially those around Cairo, Ill., and New Madrid, Mo., are beginning to look with some concern at the rising Mississippi and Ohio rivers.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Memphis District on Friday initiated a phase one "floodfight" along the Mississippi River, meaning personnel have been deployed to the field and will begin monitoring levees, flood walls and pumping stations.

Melted snow, drizzle and constant rain have saturated much of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, forcing river levels above flood stage in many areas. The National Weather Service reports rivers above flood stage as far south as Texas and Louisiana and as far north as New York. After much of the state saw between 4 and 7 inches of rain in the last seven days, almost every river in Indiana is above flood stage. In all, 149 gauges across the Midwest are above flood stage.

Lester Goodin, a 20-year member of Levy District No. 3 in the Cairo area, said a huge flood could be on the way, depending on how strong and widespread predicted rain turns out to be in the coming week.

Goodin is a Cape Girardeau resident who farms land near Charleston, Mo. He said what makes him most nervous is that floodwater seems to be building along both the Mississippi and Ohio rivers. The Ohio converges with the Mississippi at Cairo.

"I'm not concerned about Cape or anywhere above Commerce," he said. "I'm concerned about Cairo. In recorded history, we've never had a big flood on both rivers at the same time. But the story now is the gathering storms."

Corps officials from St. Louis largely downplayed the situation Friday, saying it looked like a typical flood. The National Weather Service is predicting "moderate" flooding conditions.

But a corps official from the Memphis district sounded slightly more concerned.

"We take every situation seriously, and it's safe to say we're watching more closely than usual," said Jim Pogue, spokesman for the Memphis district. "Some of the more serious flooding we've had has been at this time of the year when storm system after storm system has moved through."

The Mississippi and Ohio rivers are both rising quickly. The Mississippi has gone up as much as 5 feet in 24 hours at Cape Girardeau, Thebes, Ill., and Bird's Point, Mo.

By Friday evening, the Ohio River reached 44.3 feet. It is expected to reach 52 by Tuesday. Cairo city employees closed the city's flood gates Friday afternoon. Flood stage at Cairo is 40 feet.

Chris Noles, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Paducah, Ky., said rain should stay away from the immediate region today and Sunday, but another stormy pattern will arrive Monday, which could drop another 1 to 3 inches of rain through Thursday. Higher amounts are possible in isolated areas, he said.

In addition, heavy rain was expected in eastern Kentucky, southern Ohio and eastern West Virginia Friday night. A chance of rain is expected in that region every day through Friday of next week, which would add water to the swollen Ohio River.

The weather service predicts that the Mississippi River will crest at Bird's Point near Cairo at 51 feet on Tuesday, but that crest prediction does not include the threat of rain.

When crest predictions reach 50 feet, some residents near the Bootheel start getting nervous. Under extreme conditions -- and it happened only once, in 1937 -- the corps uses explosives to destroy a levee near New Madrid, Mo., to relieve pressure on other major levees.

A stage of 55 feet gets the corps thinking about that scenario, although they may not destroy the levee until the river level nears 60 feet.

"That's very much a last-resort task because it would have a real significant impact," Pogue said.

Corps engineer Jerry Rapp of the St. Louis District said the seriousness of the flood will depend on the weather the next two weeks.

"Since we haven't had a 50-foot crest in a while, it gets everybody's awareness up," he said.

bmiller@semissourian

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