Israelis, Palestinians wary of proposed temporary state

JERUSALEM -- It would be one of the odder countries in history, on scattered patches of land with wildly zigzagging borders, ringed by foreign troops, without a capital and less than full sovereignty.

Yet such a "Palestinian state with provisional borders" is a centerpiece of the new Mideast peace plan, perhaps the one idea that makes this prescription for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict different from its many predecessors.

International mediators, who wrote the "road map" plan, optimistically envision the mini-state by as early as the end of this year. They hope it will give Palestinians a sense of progress toward real independence -- they'd get international recognition and perhaps U.N. membership -- and reassure Israel it has nothing to fear from Palestinian sovereignty.

It appears to be an enticing offer. But many Palestinians fear a "little Palestine" will become permanent -- allowing the world to forget about their plight and Israel to keep the rest of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

"We are afraid we will be trapped at that stage," said Palestinian Labor Minister Ghassan Khatib, adding that most of his Cabinet colleagues share his view.

Israel also does not appear enthusiastic.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon posed a tough new condition in recent days: He won't agree to a provisional state until Palestinians scrap their key demand for the "right of return" of about 4 million war refugees and their descendants to Israel. Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas turned down Sharon, saying the fate of refugees must be addressed in a final peace deal.

Obstacles to the plan

Israelis and Palestinians still must clear many hurdles -- a truce, a Palestinian crackdown on militants, an Israeli settlement freeze and withdrawal from towns and villages in the West Bank and Gaza -- before they get to the mini-state.

For now, they are arguing over how to get started on the peace plan. Secretary of State Colin Powell is visiting the region this weekend to prod them along.

The three-phase road map, vaguely worded to avoid offense, is ambiguous about the provisional state, calling it an "option," but also saying Phase II would focus on setting it up. The plan says the state would be formed by the end of 2003 by an international conference.

Borders are not specified, but the road map says the Palestinians should get territory in addition to the 42 percent of the West Bank and two-thirds of Gaza they received in earlier accords.

The land Palestinians already have -- just in theory now, because Israel has reoccupied most of it in its hunt for militants -- largely consists of disconnected areas. The peace plan asks Israel to help create "maximal territorial contiguity" for the fledgling state and suggests this would require dismantling some Jewish settlements.

The idea of a Palestinian state with provisional borders was first raised in informal talks two years ago but went nowhere. The Palestinians failed to win Israel's guarantee that in the end, it would withdraw from all of the West Bank, Gaza and east Jerusalem, areas captured in the 1967 Mideast war.

A total pullout would require rebuilding a trust shattered over 31 months of violence and would leave Israel 12 miles wide at its narrowest point.

In many ways, a state with temporary borders would be similar to Palestinian self-rule arrangements in place before the outbreak of fighting in September 2000.

Since founding the Palestinian Authority in 1994, the Palestinians have had a government, a 40,000-strong security force, a flag and other trappings of statehood.

The main difference would be symbolic.

Israel would cross a point of no return by recognizing Palestinian statehood, an idea that still divides Israeli society but appears to be have gained the grudging support of a small majority. In future peace talks, the Palestinians would be on a more equal footing with Israel.

Shikaki said that despite pitfalls, a provisional state might be the only way to reach a peace deal.

"We can either continue to kill each other until we reach that point (peace)," he said, "or we can reach an agreement that would eventually take us along that road."