Iraqi cleric calls for elections as good will toward U.S. fades

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- The good will of Iraq's Shiite majority, so crucial to the success of U.S. policy, may be eroding. Strong opposition by a top Shiite cleric to key parts of a U.S. political blueprint for Iraq and the spread of violent protests in Shiite areas suggest a dangerous trend.

The U.S.-led coalition, which has already dropped one political plan for Iraq in the face of opposition by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani, sought to play down the significance of the cleric's latest objections, saying they were part of a healthy democratic climate in which political and religious leaders freely express their views.

Dan Senor, a spokesman for the Coalition Provisional Authority, told reporters Monday that implementation of a political agreement signed two months ago between L. Paul Bremer, chief U.S. administrator in Iraq, and the Iraqi Governing Council, was on track.

Al-Sistani hardened his opposition to the plan in comments issued by his office Sunday and repeated in a newspaper advertisement Monday. A provisional national assembly due to be formed by the end of May must be elected, not selected from regional caucuses as provided for in the Nov. 15 accord, al-Sistani said.

Occupation to end July 1

And he said security accords governing the continued presence of coalition troops in Iraq beyond July 1, the designated day for the occupation's formal end and the coming to office of a sovereign Iraqi government, must be ratified by an elected legislature. A "basic law," or interim constitution, being drafted by the Governing Council and due to come into effect by the end of February, must also be approved by an elected chamber.

Coalition officials say lengthy preparations are needed for any credible election and some members of the Governing Council, hand-picked by Bremer in July, believe a direct vote held prematurely may not ensure the participation of eligible voters among some 5 million Iraqis living abroad.

Under the November plan, Iraqis will go to the polls twice -- early next year to elect delegates who will draft a new constitution, and again before the end of 2005 to elect a government. The provisional assembly that's to select a sovereign government by July 1 will be chosen in caucuses held in Iraq's 18 provinces, according to the November formula.

"The ideal mechanism is an election, which many experts believe is possible to hold within the next months with an acceptable level of transparency and credibility," al-Sistani said Sunday.

Shiite Muslims have welcomed Saddam Hussein's ouster despite their misgivings about the Americans, whose arrival delivered them from decades of oppression by Iraq's Sunni Arab minority, to which Saddam belongs. Shiites have generally refrained from attacking U.S. forces, leaving that to the Sunnis. Shiites assume they will soon translate their superior numbers into formal political power.

But the relatively slow pace of reconstruction, soaring unemployment, fuel shortages, inadequate services and widespread charges of corruption have steadily eaten into that good will. Al-Sistani's thinly veiled warnings that more violence could beset Iraq if elections are not held may feed the rising frustration.

Many Iraqi Shiites, who revere their top clerics as saints and look to them for guidance in all matters, say they still feel betrayed by the United States for not coming to their aid when they rose in 1991 against Saddam, whose army killed tens of thousands of them. They say they would take up arms against the Americans if clerics like al-Sistani so order.

Senor's apparent attempt to brush aside al-Sistani's objections as part of a healthy democratic debate may not be an accurate reflection of Bremer's thinking at the moment.

The impasse over the election issue also is likely to worsen communal relations in Iraq, where Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish politicians are jockeying for advantage.

Bremer's coalition authority would not be able to proceed with the implementation of the political plan without assurances that the country's Shiites, estimated at about 60 percent of the population, are on board. In this context, the views of al-Sistani are crucial.

The plan's implementation is of paramount importance to Washington with presidential elections due in November and President Bush's re-election chances can be affected by events in Iraq, where nearly 500 U.S. soldiers have died since the war began March 20.

Only if the U.S.-led coalition can transfer sovereignty to Iraqis by July 1 as planned can the Bush administration claim a major success in Iraq, since by doing so it hopes to transfer responsibility for security to Iraqis, leaving U.S. troops with a support role.