Inflation data give Federal Reserve another topic for debate

WASHINGTON -- The Federal Reserve received some further cause for discussion at its policy meeting this week with a report Tuesday of a surprising jump in consumer inflation.

Yet most economists aren't altering their view that the Fed's first interest rate increase is at least a year away. Analysts cautioned that that time frame could change if inflation were to accelerate. The consumer price index rose 0.4 percent in May, the government said, and has risen 2.1 percent over the past 12 months -- roughly at the level of the Fed's target rate for inflation.

It's why the Fed might actually welcome the news of slightly higher inflation: It will help ease long-standing concerns that inflation might be too low. For the past two years, inflation by one key measure has remained under the Fed's 2 percent target.

"I don't think the Fed is going to express concern about the May price increase," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.

When the Fed issues a statement today after its meeting ends and updates its economic forecasts, and then chairwoman Janet Yellen holds a news conference, investors will be seeking clues about when short-term rates will finally rise. They will also be looking for hints about how and when the Fed will start unloading its vast investment holdings.

The answers will affect loan rates for individuals and businesses -- and perhaps the direction of the economy. Yet few expect to hear anything definitive.

The Fed remains in a tentative wait-and-see stance.

Though the central bank has signaled optimism, officials are unsure how much the economy will strengthen the rest of the year. In its updated forecasts, the Fed may downgrade its estimate of growth for 2014 after the government said last month that the economy shrank in the first quarter, depressed by a harsh winter.

The International Monetary Fund this week predicted that the U.S. economy will grow a modest 2 percent this year, below the IMF's previous estimate of 2.7 percent.

Yellen has suggested that the U.S. unemployment rate, now 6.3 percent, overstates the health of the job market and economy. She's also expressed concern that a high percentage of the unemployed -- 35 percent -- have been out of work for six months or more and that pay is scarcely rising for people who do have jobs.

Yet the Fed is getting closer to acting. The minutes of its last meeting in late April indicated that the Fed has begun discussing the tools it could use to finally pull back the extraordinary stimulus it's provided the U.S. economy since 2008.

This week's meeting is the third at which Yellen will preside as chair since succeeding Ben Bernanke in February. Analysts expect at least one announcement when the two-day policy meeting ends Wednesday: That the Fed will make a fifth $10 billion cut in the pace of its monthly bond purchases to $35 billion, a sign of a steadily, if slowly, improving economy. The Fed has been buying Treasury and mortgage bonds to try to keep long-term loan rates low to stimulate the economy.

The Fed will likely end its bond purchases this fall, with its investment portfolio nearing $4.5 trillion. But officials have said that even when they stop buying bonds, they don't plan to start selling any. They plan to keep the Fed's holdings steady by re-investing maturing bonds. In doing so, the Fed will still exert downward pressure on long-term rates.

The Fed has said it will keep its key short-term rate at a record low near zero for a "considerable time" after its bond purchases end. At her news conference, Yellen will likely avoid being pinned down on how long a "considerable time" might be. Last month, she said the Fed expects to start raising rates once it sees enough progress in restoring full employment and inflation has risen to its 2 percent target rate.

Most Fed members expect the Fed to start raising short-term rates between mid-2015 and 2016. The central bank has stressed that even after it starts raising rates, it will likely keep them unusually low to support the economy.

Minutes of the Fed's April 29-30 meeting show that officials discussed how best to unwind support for the economy once they begin raising the benchmark short-term rate.

The job market has shown consistent improvement. Employers have added 200,000-plus jobs for four straight months. The unemployment rate has dropped to a level the Fed hadn't expected to see until year's end.

But Yellen has stressed that she is studying barometers of the job market beyond the unemployment rate -- from the percentage of long-term unemployed among the jobless to the number of part-time workers who would prefer full-time jobs and the percentage of adults either working or looking for work. By those measures, the job market remains subpar, a reason Yellen has cited for the Fed's continued support.

She has also expressed worries that the housing recovery may be faltering. In addition, Fed officials have discussed such geopolitical risks as slow growth in Europe and Russia's aggression toward Ukraine. The newest threat is rising sectarian violence in Iraq, which has sent oil prices up.

This week's meeting will bring new faces to debate the issues. The Senate last week approved the nomination of Stanley Fischer, former head of Israel's central bank, as the Fed's vice chair. In addition, Lael Brainard, a former Treasury undersecretary for international affairs, won Senate approval for a vacant board post. Fischer, Brainard and Jerome Powell, who was confirmed for a new term, were all sworn in Monday.

Also, Loretta Mester has succeeded Sandra Pianalto as president of the Fed's regional bank in Cleveland and will participate for the first time this week.