Indicators for 2008 point downward for GOP

WASHINGTON -- It is gallows humor time for Republicans in Congress, where one lawmaker jokes that "there's talk about us going the way of the Whigs," the 19th-century political party long extinct.

"That's not going to happen," Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., hastens to add, although a little more than a year before the 2008 election, the major leading political indicators still point downward for a party abruptly turned out of power in 2006.

Money, candidates scarce

Fundraising for Republican campaign organizations lags. That is strikingly so in the House, where the party committee spent more than it raised in each of the past two months, reported only $1.6 million in the bank at the end of August and a debt of nearly $4 million.

Democrats reported $22.1 million in the bank and a debt of slightly more than $3 million.

Candidate recruitment has been uneven, particularly in the Senate, where Republicans must defend 22 of the 34 seats on the ballot next year. Democrats boast top-tier challengers for GOP-held seats in Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine, Minnesota and Oregon.

Republicans have yet to put forward a prominent challenger for any Democratic-held seat, although an announcement is expected soon in Louisiana.

Additionally, nine Republicans in the House and three in the Senate have announced plans to retire. Some of those leaving are in midcareer, when a departure often signals pessimism about the prospects for regaining the majority. Democratic retirements total two to date -- both are House members who are running for the Senate.

"The Democrats will continue to be the majority party in the House and Senate and Hillary Clinton will make history by being the first woman president" in 2008, predicts Rep. Ray LaHood, one of three Illinois Republicans to announce his retirement so far.

What makes LaHood's prediction stand out is his willingness to say it publicly.

Numerous other Republican lawmakers, aides and strategists said Democrats appear headed for two more years in power in Congress, but they declined to say so on the record.

Republicans stay positive

Despite their difficulties, Republicans are not deep in the minority. A switch of 16 seats would give them control of the House next year; a change of one or two seats could deliver the Senate.

After a long turn in power in Congress, LaHood and other Republicans say the change in fortunes is partly the result of historical cycles. "The American people like a change," he said.

At the same time, President Bush's approval is stuck in the mid-30s and the Iraq war remains unpopular with the public.

Polls, too, chart the decline of the Republicans.

A recent Gallup Poll reported that 59 percent of those surveyed have an unfavorable impression of the Republican Party. By a margin of 47-42 percent, they said Democrats will do a better job of protecting against terrorism and military threats. Asked which party would better maintain prosperity, the majority preferred the Democrats, 54-34.

Despite their woes, numerous Republicans say they may have weathered the worst of it.

The race for the 2008 presidential nomination may sort itself out as early as February, they say, giving the party a new face months before the elections.

"Whoever it is, it won't be George W. Bush," said Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind. "I deeply admire the president, but many Americans have a somewhat unmovable impression of the president at this point."