If U.S. attacks, Saddam could try to initiate urban warfare

CAIRO, Egypt -- If a U.S. attack against Iraq sparks popular revolts, elite troops would likely join, and the cornered Saddam Hussein would try to draw American troops into urban fighting with his loyalists, exiled commanders who once fought under him say.

Saddam's leadership has made clear to the Iraqi people that it expects them to resist any U.S. attack. That message -- conveyed by the official media and in street rallies -- even appears in a novel whose anonymous author is thought to be Saddam.

At one point, the hero of the novel "The Fortified Citadel" says the people must be prepared to "sacrifice themselves" against the enemy and that the army should "fight amid its people."

As Washington threatens an attack to oust Saddam for his weapons programs, U.S. officials, including Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, have made clear they hope the Iraqi people will rise up against their leader and that his soldiers will disobey orders to fight.

Some former Iraqi commanders, now in exile, say they expect that even the elite Republican Guard would join a popular revolt if Saddam appears doomed.

"These are human beings after all, they will surely abandon Saddam's ship when they see it sinking," retired Brig. Najib Al Salehi told The Associated Press by telephone from the United States, where he lives. Al Salehi was chief of staff of an Iraqi armored division in Kuwait during the Gulf War.

Al Salehi and other former commanders and experts said Saddam's army could not match the U.S. military.

Al Salehi said he expects Saddam's strategy to focus on defending -- and trying to draw the Americans into -- key cities, especially Baghdad, the capital, and Saddam's hometown, Tikrit.

Saddam "is sure that the Americans will not enter major cities, therefore he will try to lure them into exactly that situation and then engage them in street fighting," Al Salehi said.

But urban warfare in Baghdad would also be risky for Saddam, says Ismail Zayer, an Iraqi journalist who covers the Iraqi army for the London-based Al-Hayat newspaper. Without proper command the regular army will collapse while other major cities will fall to rebels, Zayer said.

Preparation for revolt

Some senior officers are going into the Kurdish-controlled north offering to participate in any revolt once the U.S. strike begins, Zayer said. He said some top government officials are asking Shiite tribal leaders to shelter their families when the war starts.

The Iraqi leader has placed relatives in key fighting positions, hoping their loyalty will ensure his survival.

His eldest son, Odai, is the commander of Saddam's Fedayeen, a paramilitary force. Another son, Qusai, is in charge of tens of thousands of Republican Guards. Saddam's cousin, Ali Hassan al-Majid, notorious for ordering the gassing of Kurds in 1988, is the military chief assigned to the southern provinces.