HOT: RAIN MAY BE ON TAP FOR TODAY

The National Weather Service says some relief from the week-long string of hot and dry days may be near.

There's a slight chance of thunderstorms late today, but forecasters said chances of thunderstorms should increase by mid-week as a frontal boundary that has been stalled for over a week across Missouri, Iowa and northern Illinois begins to sag southward into central and southern Missouri.

Meanwhile, heavy rains and flash flooding last week along the Missouri-Iowa border and in western Illinois have caused the Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau to rise over five feet since Thursday.

With highs today expected to be back in the mid-90s, the string of 90-degree-plus days in Cape Girardeau will hit seven. The afternoon high at the airport has been at or above 90 each day since July 7. Between July 9-12, the daily high was 94 degrees with overnight lows in the warm and muggy mid-70s.

Al Robertson, professor of earth science and climatologist at Southeast Missouri State University, said the average temperature for the first 12 days of this month was 81 degrees, up 2.1 degrees from the long-term average of 78 degrees.

The only redeeming aspect of this summer's first prolonged heat wave in the area is the gusty winds each day that have made it seem a little cooler than it really was, and the fact that it has been much hotter during the same period in the past.

For example, just two years ago, between July 1-11, 1990, the area was in the grips of an 11-day heat wave that included three days of 100-degree-plus weather. Two record highs were set during the period, 102 degrees on July 9, and 101 degrees on July 10. Fortunately, the heat wave broke one day later, with a high of only 88 degrees. The following day, July 12, the afternoon high was a spring-like 79 degrees.

National Weather Service Forecaster Vince Aquaviva said Monday weather service computer models indicate the strong ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico that has blocked southward movement of the stalled frontal zone for over a week may weaken somewhat by late today or Wednesday, allowing the front to sag southward into central Missouri.

The front marks the boundary between hot, humid air and much cooler and drier air north of the front. It generated daily thunderstorms in northern Missouri last week, some of it severe. Over the weekend the system spawned tornadoes in parts of Ohio.

The heavy rain has caused the river at Cape Girardeau to rise from 13 feet July 9 to 17.7 feet Monday. It was expected to reach 18.3 feet by Wednesday.

Aquaviva said if the front makes its way into central Missouri it should be close enough to cause showers and thunderstorms to develop on both sides, some of them reaching as far south as Cape Girardeau. The storms are expected to continue through Friday.

Terry Birk of the Cape Girardeau County Agriculture Stabilization and Conservation Service said although crops are not hurting for rain right now, some precipitation this week could avert potential problems later this month.

"We're getting to the point where some rain right now would be beneficial to all of the crops: corn, soybeans, cotton and milo," said Birk.

He explained the past seven to 10 days of hot and sunny weather and gusty winds has caused moisture in the ground and in the crops to evaporate much faster than usual. Birk said the moisture loss could be made up by some more rain.

The last significant precipitation at the Cape Girardeau airport was on July 3, when .98 of an inch fell. Since then only .10 of an inch have fallen, and no rain has fallen at the airport since July 5.

Birk said if the area doesn't get rain this week some signs of heat stress could start showing up by next week. He said if the dry weather continues through the end of the month, it could begin to affect crop yields at harvest time.

"Right now everything looks great," he said. "The corn, beans, cotton and milo, they all look fine. There's no sign of heat stress. If we can get some rain between now and the end of the week, it's going to help them get through the rest of July and August. I would like to see an overnight, soaking two-inch rain."