Holden, McCaskill still neck and neck, poll shows

The Associated Press

ST. LOUIS -- Gov. Bob Holden is apparently leading challenger State Auditor Claire McCaskill in the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in advance of their primary showdown next week, a poll shows.

The poll -- conducted for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and St. Louis' KMOV-TV -- found that 46 percent of 500 likely Democratic voters questioned favored Holden while 40 percent preferred McCaskill in the Aug. 3 primary, with 14 percent undecided.

The margin of error of the statewide telephone poll, conducted by Maryland-based Research 2000 from last Tuesday through Thursday of voters who regularly cast ballots in state elections, was 4.5 percentage points, meaning Holden appears to be slightly ahead of McCaskill.

A poll published last week by The Kansas City Star and Kansas City's KMBC-TV showed Holden with 43 percent and McCaskill with 41 percent, with 16 percent of those surveyed undecided.

The margin of error of that Market Research Institute poll -- involving 300 people who said July 13 through July 20 they would request a Democratic ballot for the Aug. 3 primary -- was plus or minus 5.7 percentage points, meaning the candidates were about even.

A separate survey done for the Post-Dispatch and KMOV found that among 802 likely Democratic, Republican and independent voters, 44 percent said they had a favorable opinion of Holden, while 45 percent said they viewed the incumbent unfavorably.

That poll's error margin was 3.5 percentage points.

"The fact that he is below 50 [percent in favorability] and he is the sitting governor running for his party's nomination is a pretty bad sign for him," said David Kimball, an assistant political science professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis.

In a hypothetical race between Holden and the likely Republican nominee for governor, Secretary of State Matt Blunt, the Post-Dispatch and KMOV said last week's polling of 802 likely Missouri voters showed 45 percent for Blunt, 44 percent for Holden and 11 percent undecided.

McCaskill was also about even with Blunt if the two were to square off in November, with McCaskill getting 44 percent to Blunt's 42 percent. Fourteen percent were undecided.

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On the net

Holden campaign: www.holdenforgovernor.com

McCaskill campaign: www.claireonline.com

Blunt campaign: www.mattblunt.com