Cape Girardeau television station KFVS-TV is scheduled to begin broadcasting high-definition signals May 1, meeting the mandated deadline of a Federal Communications Commission eager to put the new technology in the homes of consumers.
But people in the television industry doubt many in the station's broadcast area will be watching at this point.
"When we turn it on, I would be surprised if there were more than 15 or 20 sets out there," said Arnold Killian, the station's chief engineer.
There are 100 million U.S. households with one or more televisions. The number of HDTV sets is estimated at well under 100,000.
At KBSI-TV, the Fox station in Cape Girardeau, general manager Dan Cohen says the station is working on its HDTV upgrade but has asked the FCC to extend its deadline.
This is the year medium-size markets are scheduled to go to HDTV. All stations in the United States are supposed to be broadcasting in HDTV by the end of 2003.
Viewers can expect good things from HDTV, Killian said. "Most of the time they show it with somebody walking through the woods and you see all the veins in the leaves and the twigs. ... It's a substantial improvement to the picture."
KFVS-TV and KBSI-TV, when it comes online, will broadcast in both HDTV and in the current analog TV signals until 2006, when the FCC wants the analog signal turned off. A $700 device called a TeVCA adapter box can enable analog sets to receive HDTV signals once the analog signal disappears. However, the picture will be conventional, not HDTV.
The transition to HDTV could take as long as 10 years, predicts Dave Folsom, vice president for technology at Raycom Media, KFVS-TV's Atlanta, Ga.-based parent company.
"The problem is trying to make it happen without passing lots of rules and regulations," Folsom says. "But without them, it may not be able to happen."
FCC chairman Michael Powell, son of the Secretary of State Colin Powell, recently proposed that cable and satellite companies voluntarily meet minimum levels of HDTV programming -- the signals of up to five digital programming services -- by Jan. 1. He wants the four broadcast networks, HBO and Showtime to provide at least 50 percent of their prime-time schedules in "value-added DTV" -- HDTV, innovative multicasting or interactive TV -- beginning with the 2002-2003 season.
He also has proposed that equipment manufacturers begin including Digital TV tuners in all TV sets manufactured. Under the graduated proposal, all new sets would have DTV tuners by Dec. 31, 2006. This would allow all new TV sets to receive the digital signal whether they are HDTV or not.
CBS's entire prime-time schedule is broadcast in HDTV along with "Late Night with David Letterman." The other networks are lagging behind with only a few programs each and in some cases none.
18 different formats
One of the obstacles to disseminating HDTV is that 70 percent of American households currently receive television signals via cable, Folsom says, and the FCC at this point has provided no corresponding mandate for cable or satellite TV companies to begin carrying the signals.
HDTV comes in 18 different formats, presenting broadcasters with a technological dilemma in the absence of any FCC standards.
Charter Communications, which operates the cable franchises in Cape Girardeau and Jackson, Mo., is testing HDTV in a number of markets this year: Alhambra, Pasadena, Glendale and Burbank in California, University Park in Texas, South Miami in Florida, Birmingham in Alabama, Kalamazoo, Mich., and St. Louis.
When HDTV might be coming to Cape Girardeau and Jackson is unknown.
"The driver for adding more communities will be more folks who purchase a high-definition television," says Charter spokeswoman Anita Lamont.
Charter has 7 million customers in 40 states.
She adds that it's important for people to remember that they must have an HDTV set, a digital receiver and a decoder to receive HDTV.
Approximately 10 percent of American homes receive TV signals from satellites. The satellite industry is leading the way in HDTV programming, claims James Ashurst, director of communications for the Virginia-based Satellite Broadcasting and Communications Association. DirecTV currently is offering two HDTV channels, including one from HBO. DirecTV and Echo Star have promised to offer 12 HDTV channels if a talked-about merger occurs.
More and more sales
People on the sales floor say more and more HDTVs are going out the door. John Selby, owner of Stereo One in Cape Girardeau, says 98 percent of the televisions the store sells that are 36 inches and larger are HDTV. Of 32-inch TVs, about half are HDTV. With smaller sets, HDTV is really not a factor, he says.
Most people who are buying HDTV sets now want to take advantage of the superior picture quality they provide when viewing DVDs, but not all digital sets are HDTV sets. Some digital sets turn the analog signal into a much sharper picture and are good for showing DVDs but lack the digital TV tuner necessary to receive HDTV signals.
Stereo One merchandising manager Chad James says all the digital TVs in his showroom are HDTVs.
At Shivelbine's music store, Scott Shivelbine says the prices for HDTV have dropped considerably in the past few years. The store's lowest-priced HDTV is $2,000. Sets were selling for $4,000-$5,000 just a few years ago.
Despite Killian's low estimate of operating HDTV sets, Shivelbine says 15 of the big-screen TVs sold at his store last year were HDTVs.
Began work last June
Raycom has been at work on the transition to HDTV for five years and has spent many millions of dollars on new transmitters and other requirements of the technology, Folsom says. Of its 1,300 commercial TV stations nationwide, 440 will go to HDTV by May 1.
Killian said KFVS-TV began construction on its switch to HDTV last June, doing building modifications, installing a new transmitter and a transmission line antenna. The HDTV signal will be transmitted along with the analog signal from its tower 8 1/2 miles north of Cape Girardeau.
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