Hard to be certain about dollar effect of Cards stadium

ST. LOUIS -- As supporters of a new downtown stadium for the St. Louis Cardinals work state Capitol back rooms in the traditionally frantic final days of the year's legislative session, the argument will echo.

"We anticipate the city and the state will receive far more in return than what's being put in," Mayor Francis Slay said.

It's a pitch that Slay, the Cardinals and others have thrown at lawmakers and the public since they launched their bid for public funding to help pay for the $346 million stadium. Give the Cardinals a dollar today, get back five in tax revenue during three decades of baseball prosperity in a revitalized downtown.

"We anticipate the city alone will receive approximately $400 million more in additional revenue than what is being put in, just for the ballpark itself," Slay said.

Slay has the numbers to back up his prediction. But they're based on Cardinals-provided figures and assume a growing stream of revenue coming out of the new stadium's cash registers. It also depends on an economic environment that never falls victim to labor strife or a dramatic drop in the team's legendary attendance.

That $400 million also fails to consider Busch Stadium's current value. In the city's case, depending on how that value is calculated, the 30-year result could anything from a $160 million profit to a $116 million loss.

Is there any way to say for sure what the public can expect in return for building the Cardinals a stadium?

'A risky business'

"Forecasting 30 years ahead of time is a risky business, because a lot can change," said Michael Alderson, a St. Louis University finance professor.

The team provided city officials with predictions on taxes generated directly by a new stadium, which are largely tied to attendance.

Those estimates predict the ballpark, starting in 2005, would generate a little more than $525 million in direct tax revenue over the life of a 30-year lease.

It's in line with what the city reasonably can expect from a new stadium, said Mark S. Rosentraub, dean of Cleveland State University's Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs. With Busch Stadium attendance already so high -- more than 3 million fans annually -- there is little room for the traditional spike caused by opening a new ballpark, he said.

"In that regard, you just have to be prudently cautious," Rosentraub said. "Otherwise, you get into an Enron situation."

If attendance pans out

Being cautious, the city-audited revenue estimates are based on an average attendance of 2.8 million fans, not the 3.4 to 3.5 million Rosentraub said the team might expect. Still, numerous factors could affect attendance, which in a full 1995 season dropped below that of strike-shortened 1994, with just 1.7 million fans passing through Busch's gates.

"They are keeping attendance steady or having it grow, but also ramping up ticket prices," Alderson said. "Those don't always move together. Then there are questions about the general health of the industry."

If attendance pans out as expected, that leaves, after subtracting the city's $126 million in bond payments, a tidy profit of just under $400 million: five dollars for every one invested.

But that $400 million isn't all "new" tax revenue. Subtracting what it's already getting from the Cardinals, the city would have a $160 million profit over 30 years.