Half of business economists forecast recession by 2020

WASHINGTON -- Roughly half the nation's business economists say they think the U.S. economy will slip into recession by the end of next year, and three-fourths envision such a downturn beginning by the end of 2021.

The finding comes from the latest survey by the National Association for Business Economics of its member economists. Just 10 percent of them say they foresee a recession beginning this year. At the other extreme, only 11 percent expect the economy to avoid a recession through 2021.

The economy began its expansion in June 2009, when the Great Recession officially ended. If it endures beyond June this year, the expansion will become the longest on record. Compared with others, the current one has been tepid, with annual economic growth averaging just slightly above 2 percent. But many economists say its modest pace has helped prolong the expansion, in part by keeping inflation in check.

The NABE economists approve of the Federal Reserve's management of interest rates, with nearly three-quarters of them calling the Fed's policymaking "about right."

Having raised rates four times last year, the Fed and its chairman, Jerome Powell, have pledged to be "patient" about rates -- which most analysts have taken to mean they're done raising rates for at least a few months. Investors are collectively betting the Fed won't raise its benchmark rate at all this year. But the NABE survey found 39 percent of economists foresee one rate increase -- and 26 percent say they think the Fed will raise rates twice this year.