GOP ascendancy continues in state, particularly Southeast Mo.

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- The 2004 elections leave little doubt that Missouri, long considered a swing state, is now solidly in the red column. In Southeast Missouri, which traditionally had posted wide swaths of Democratic blue on electoral maps, the Republican dominance is, like other rural areas, becoming even more pronounced than the state as a whole.

Of the seven offices on the statewide ballot Tuesday, Missourians elected Republicans to five. Among Southeast Missouri voters, Attorney General Jay Nixon was the only Democrat to carry the region. Democrat Robin Carnahan won the election for secretary of state but did so without much help from Southeast Missouri, where she won just eight of 18 counties.

Voters statewide easily re-elected President George W. Bush and U.S. Sen. Kit Bond and placed three other Republicans in high offices currently held by Democrats -- governor, lieutenant governor and state treasurer. The GOP also boosted its majorities in both chambers of the legislature.

Democrats will hold just three state executive branch positions. In addition to Nixon and Carnahan, State Auditor Claire McCaskill has two more years left on her term after losing a close governor's race to Republican Secretary of State Matt Blunt.

The GOP's grip on state government is the tightest it's been in generations. Southeast Missouri State University political scientist Richard Almeida predicted it will be some time before Democrats recapture significant power in the state.

"It certainly seems to me that until the Democratic Party can reclaim a place in the war of ideas they are not going to do well," Almeida said.

Almeida said Republicans have effectively seized the high ground on social issues that appeal to Missouri's generally conservative voters and generally trump pocketbook concerns.

This is despite the fact that two of the three highest-profile social issues -- granting Missourians the right to carry concealed weapons and banning same-sex marriage in the state constitution -- already have been settled.

The third topic, abortion, has produced much rhetoric and emotion but little action in recent years, even though the state legislature has long been overwhelmingly pro-life. Only two abortion-related bills in the last five years have received significant debate and both became law.

Almeida said social issues resonate with voters nonetheless, particularly in rural areas.

"You just have to trot them out," Almeida said. "You don't have to pass anything."

The recent elections shattered one long-held bit of conventional political wisdom: Whether a Democrat or Republican, you have to carry vote-heavy St. Louis County to win Missouri.

Although Democratic candidates swept the county -- including in contests for president and U.S. Senate that were statewide blowouts for the GOP -- they won just two statewide races.

Missouri Republican Party spokesman Paul Sloca said St. Louis County isn't the deciding factor it once was thanks to the increasing GOP clout in Springfield, Southeast Missouri and other rural areas.

"The strength of rural areas have really helped the Republican Party," Sloca said. "That is a significant part of our winning strategy."

Four Southeast Missouri counties -- Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau and Ripley -- went Republican in every statewide race. They even supported little-known Chris Byrd for attorney general. Byrd, who graduated from law school just three years ago, captured only 37.7 percent of the statewide vote as Nixon walked to a fourth term.

The strong Republican loyalties in those counties, however, isn't surprising. Two years ago, all but Ripley County preferred a convicted felon who was the Republican nominee for state auditor over the Democratic incumbent.

Carter, Madison, Perry and Scott counties produced near-sweeps for the GOP, with Nixon being the only Democrat winning each.

The lower Bootheel is still delivering Democratic votes for statewide offices, although in lower numbers than once was the case.

Mississippi, New Madrid and Pemiscot counties supported all five Democrats seeking Missouri executive branch posts, but voted against U.S. Sen. John Kerry for president and State Treasurer Nancy Farmer for U.S. Senate. Dunklin County generally followed its neighbors, but also endorsed Blunt for governor.

Ste. Genevieve County was the only jurisdiction in Southeast Missouri that Kerry claimed. Farmer was swept by Bond in the region.

Southeast political scientist Rick Althaus said that although Missouri is firmly in Republican hands for the near future, the lock isn't permanent. The state's voters still have a fierce independent streak and retain a willingness to swing back to Democrats if the political winds shift, he said.

"Missouri is red, but it's not indelibly red," Althaus said.

mpowers@semissourian.com

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