Floods unlikely to top record levels

Heavy rains during the last few days have left parts of Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois staring down the barrel of a major flood, but the situation could be worse, experts said.

"We're looking at major flooding conditions, but it's right at that level -- not much above it," said Robin Smith, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in St. Louis.

A spokesman for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said the Mississippi River is expected to crest at 45.5 feet -- 13.5 feet above flood stage -- on Thursday at Cape Girardeau.

Earlier forecasts were calling for the river to reach 46.5 feet Thursday. It was at 37.55 feet Sunday afternoon -- more than five and a half feet above flood stage.

"We're not going to hit record levels at Cape from what I see now," said Mike Petersen, chief of public affairs for the corps' fifth district.

The river reached its highest level in recorded history Aug. 8, 1993, when it crested at 48.5 feet, Petersen said. Its fourth-highest level was 46.28 feet on May 3, 2011.

During that flood, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers blew up part of the Birds Point levee to take pressure off the floodwall protecting Cairo, Ill. The breach -- which Missouri officials tried to block in federal court -- inundated thousands of acres of Mississippi County farmland.

Such a move shouldn't be necessary this time, Smith said.

"We're not looking at anything like that," he said.

Still, at 42 feet, more than 100,000 acres could be flooded, Smith said.

Doyle Parmer, emergency management coordinator for Dutchtown -- which floods regularly and has applied for a buyout from the Federal Emergency Management Agency -- said about 20 volunteers were working Sunday to close culverts and put up barriers to protect the town.

"We need all the volunteers we can handle in the next couple of days," he said.

Parmer planned to meet with an engineer from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers at 9 a.m. today to determine what else needed to be done to protect the town.

Flooding is expected later this week in Cape Girardeau, Thebes, Ill., and Chester, Ill., where the river is expected to crest at nearly 16 feet above flood stage, he said.

"As far as the river, we're looking for major flooding to develop around Thursday at both Cape Girardeau and Thebes," Smith said.

Petersen said the corps is prepared, with flood-fighting teams on the ground to provide expertise and supplies in the Upper Mississippi area, where floodwaters have overtopped two levees.

"We're mobilizing folks as we speak," he said Sunday afternoon. "We're ready for it."

Earlier flooding overtopped seven levees in agricultural and conservation areas north of Cape Girardeau, eroding them and potentially reducing the river's level to the south by giving the water more room to spread, Petersen said.

"When a levee overtops, it'll affect the height of that levee," he said. "It will scour out. ... That'll take a little bit of a bite out of that forecast."

Cape Girardeau received 4.49 inches of rainfall between Thursday morning and Sunday morning, Smith said, with up to another half-inch expected later this week.

The additional rainfall should arrive more gradually than the last round, he said.

"That's over a three-day period, not three hours," Smith said. "We're not looking at the types of rain that we received over the last couple of days."

The bigger problems could come over the long term: Once the river reaches major flood levels, the water drains slowly, so the area remains at risk even after the rain stops.

"When I say it's going to take a while to go down below flood level, I'm talking maybe a couple of weeks, a month," Smith said.

As the river rises, tributaries -- including the Big Muddy River in Southern Illinois -- start to back up, compounding the problem, he said.

"The Big Muddy can't dump into the Mississippi, so it's backfilling, and they're actually looking for moderate flood conditions to develop in Murphysboro, Ill. -- not because of rain or anything, but just because it can't dump into the Mississippi," Smith said.

Problems aren't always immediately apparent, because water takes time to travel.

In Memphis, Tenn., the river level has dropped, but that will change as the water from recent storms -- including a pair of tornadoes that hit the St. Louis area last week -- makes its way south, Smith said.

"That surge of water hasn't gotten down there yet," he said.

Parmer said anyone who would like to help with sandbagging in Dutchtown should report to 10464 State Highway 25, near the intersection of highways 25 and 74.

epriddy@semissourian.com

388-3642

Pertinent address:

Mississippi River, Cape Girardeau, Mo.