FLOODING CAUSED BY RAINS, HIGH OHIO

The Mississippi River at Cape Girardeau has risen almost 10 feet in the past two weeks.

On Friday, the river passed 42 feet and is predicted to crest Tuesday at more than 46 feet, two feet below the flood crest of 1993.

Why all the water?

This year's flooding and the flood of 1993 were caused by different combinations of factors. The result has been devastating both times.

This year, extremely heavy rains have fallen in northern Missouri and southern Iowa. In addition, the local area has experienced a lot of rain, and the Ohio River is high.

In 1993, the Mississippi River crept up over a matter of months instead of days to reach the same height.

Flood stage at Cape Girardeau is 32 feet. The Mississippi River topped that mark May 3 this year. Starting May 9, the river began a quick rise of a half foot to a foot or more a day. The Mississippi went up more than two feet from Thursday to Friday alone.

In 1993, the river rose above flood stage in March, then receded. It rose again in April and stayed above flood stage through May, then receded during the first days of June.

June 10 the river began its rise to a record crest of 48.49 feet on Aug. 8. The river receded slowly, remaining above flood stage until Oct. 12.

Friday brought a respite from severe weather in Southeast Missouri and Southern Illinois. Clear skies are predicted for today, but rain is forecast again tonight, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

If those storms dump a lot of rain on the region, homes that remained dry in 1993 could get wet this year, said Brian Miller, the Cape Girardeau County Emergency Operations chief.

The St. Louis area had locally heavy rain, nearly 10 inches since Monday. Cape Girardeau had more than three inches since Monday.

The ground is saturated across the state and rainwater has nowhere to go except into the Missouri and Mississippi rivers.

Levies built along the rivers keep the water bottled up and restrict the flow to protect some areas. Water is pushed out into other areas not protected by a levy.

City and county officials are worried that heavy rain over the weekend might cause flash flooding.

Water in the Whitewater River, the Castor River and other creeks are dumping into the Diversion Channel. The channel is already out of its normal banks because of the high Mississippi River level.

In addition, Walker and Cape LaCroix creeks, which handle rainwater in Cape Girardeau, are backed up with Mississippi River water.

With nowhere to go, water can back up and cause flooding. Miller said areas prone to flash floods, which weren't affected in 1993, might get wet this year.

"Even with nice new channels, the water can't drain if there is nowhere for it to go," Miller said.

This year, the Ohio River is high, backing water up into the Mississippi River. The Ohio was low in 1993. Most cities south of Commerce didn't experience much flooding.

In 1993, Southeast Missouri was dealing with a drought. In southern Cape Girardeau County, farmers were irrigating fields on one side of the road while fields on the other side of the road were covered with floodwaters.

"Essentially it was dry in this area and the heavy rains were far to the north," Miller said. "All that flowed down into this area."

In 1993, people here had a lot of warning about the rising waters.

"We watched it while people in Iowa and Illinois were getting their socks knocked off," Miller said. "We had time to prepare."

This year, we don't have the luxury of lead time, Miller said. But emergency personnel have the experiences of 1993 to draw on this time around.

"We can move a little quicker and we know what needs to be done," Miller said.

When weather experts call a flood a 100-year flood or a 500-year flood, they are referring to the odds of a similar flood happening within 100 years.

"That's not to say we couldn't have two in a year and nothing for 1,000 years," Miller said.

Another possibility is that something has changed and the water is bottled up upstream causing flooding downstream.

In 1993, flooding and storms killed 48 people and caused $16 billion in damage nine Midwest states. Missouri was the hardest hit.

RIVER'S RISE

Mississippi stages in feet over almost two weeks.

May 8 -- 32.9

May 9 -- 33.0

May 10 -- 33.5

May 11 -- 34.1

May 12 -- 35.0

May 13 -- 35.8

May 14 -- 36.6

May 15 -- 37.2

May 16 -- 37.6

May 17 -- 38.1

May 18 -- 39.6

May 19 -- 42.1