Flawed candidates set negative course to Nov. 2

WASHINGTON -- After two debates, voters have seen President Bush look peevish and heard him pass the buck. They've watched Sen. John Kerry deny he's a flip-flopper and then argue that Saddam Hussein was a threat -- and wasn't.

It's no wonder so few minds have changed.

Three weeks and one debate from Election Day, the vulnerable incumbent and his flawed challenger are struggling for the upper hand. Private and public polls show Bush and Kerry neck-and-neck for the popular vote, and the all-important race to 270 Electoral College votes is just as close.

Bush has all the advantages of incumbency, an electoral map that favors Republicans and a challenger whose voting record is arguably one of the most liberal in the Senate. Sounds good on paper.

But so does Kerry's case for a new course. More than 800,000 jobs have been lost during Bush's term, and his main justification for invading Iraq -- the assertion that there were weapons of mass destruction -- has been discredited after the loss of 1,000 American lives.

While most voters picked sides long ago, those in the wavering middle are trying to decide between a challenger who promises change and an incumbent who warns of its risks.

While still calling Kerry a flip-flopper, Bush has opened a new line of attack by calling him a tax-and-spend liberal. The L-word, a Bush aide said, is just another way to call Kerry a wimp.

With little fanfare, Kerry has also shifted his emphasis. The slogan "Stronger at Home, Respected in the World," has been replaced by a more populist pitch, "Fighting for us."

On Monday, a senior Kerry adviser said campaign polling showed the race was still tied. Public surveys vary from a slight Kerry lead to an edge for Bush.

Bush has lost ground to Kerry on many issues and personal qualities, polls show, but he is still seen as the strongest leader and the most trusted to protect the country and deal with Iraq.

Voters believe Kerry would do better at creating jobs.

Polls suggest voters are open to change, with a majority weary of Iraq and believing the nation is headed on the wrong track.

Bush's challenge is to convince voters that change is too risky -- that Kerry is too indecisive to lead the nation. Kerry needs the campaign be a referendum on Bush's record.

That's why the next three weeks will be even more negative and personal, a prospect likely to bring out the worst in both men.