Farmers look ahead to uncertain 2009 amid extremes in weather, financial markets

Third-generation farmer Jeff Lorberg of Gordonville is cautious when predicting the income from his 2009 crop of corn, soybeans and wheat.

High input costs, swings in grain prices, record rainfall and the coldest temperatures since 1996 made for one of Lorberg's most unpredictable years.

"This past year was so extreme we had to rely on the Lord to carry us through," said Lorberg, whose family farms 900 acres. "And he took care of us. And there's no doubt that he'll do the same this year."

Lorberg is one of many Southeast Missouri farmers making preparations for planting this year.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture's 2009 Farm Sector Income Forecast, net farm income is predicted to be $71.2 billion, a decrease of $18.1 billion from 2008. Corn production nationwide is expected to total 12 billion to 13 billion bushels, which would be the second highest yield ever recorded. Soybean production is also expected to fare well, with a fourth-highest yield of about 3 billion bushels.

The report also predicts input prices to be less than in 2008, particularly for manufactured feed and transportation and repair services.

Gary Marshall, chief executive officer of the Missouri Corn Growers Association, said that while he is optimistic about the upcoming year, it remains to be seen whether Missouri farmers can match the 382 million bushels of corn planted in 2008, the fourth-highest on record. He said 20 percent of farmers in the state have yet to decide all the crops they'll plant this year.

KIT DOYLE ~ kdoyle@semissourian.com Tyler Lorberg checks as soybeans fill a truck Monday morning at Lorberg Farms in Gordonville. Farmers say they're facing an uncertain year.

After a 14.2 increase in production expenses last year, the department predicts expenses will decrease for the first time since 2002 to $277.1 billion. Expenses are expected to consume 79 percent of the gross farm income, with seed expenses expected to increase by 3 percent to $3.8 billion.

On Monday morning the price for a bushel of wheat was trading on the Chicago Board of Trade for $5.125, corn for $3.49 and soybeans for $8.50.

"We're optimistic about what the year holds for Missouri's farmers," Marshall said. "The next 60 days will determine what happens with corn prices. We've had a lot of moisture so far this year and that's great for our farmers."

Jim Stuever, who plants corn, cotton and soybeans on his 2,400-acre farm in Dexter, Mo., said he has not decided what he will plant on 30 percent of his land. Like other farmers, Stuever said input costs will influence his decision about what to plant on 500 acres. Stuever plans to plant corn on about 1,000 acres and soybeans and cotton on 900 acres.

John Lorberg, left, discusses soil qualities on different fields with Lance McBryde, a GPS coordinator with MFA, on Monday in Gordonville. Soil testing of the fields results in more specific and economic uses of fertilizers and helps maintain a uniform soil quality.

Stuever said that to turn a profit, the region must not experience the same type of weather it has seen the last two years.

Southeast Missouri saw 12.52 inches below normal of rainfall from March to August 2007, including .01 inches of rain in August 2007, its driest on record. That resulted in Southeast Missouri counties reporting anywhere from a 25 to 90 percent loss on some crops during that period.

Last year -- when the area experienced an ice storm and flooding -- Stuever lost 250 acres of cotton during a hail storm.

"The last few years we've been rocked with weather fiascoes," Stuever said. "Right now we're on time to plant but the weather pattern in the next few weeks will be critical in whether we are able to plant on time.

"We have to stay optimistic," he said. "The economic crisis we're in will be interesting in how it plays out. The ag industry is vital to this area and we need to stay viable or else it will have a ripple effect on the rest of the country, like the auto industry has."

Bill Ellis, professor of agriculture at Southeast Missouri State University in Cape Girardeau, said he does not believe 2009 will be profitable for area farmers, though he said the larger farms also fare better than those with fewer acres because the larger ones can buy fertilizer and seeds in bulk.

"Inputs such as fertilizer and diesel costs are going to be down, but seed costs will be up five to 10 percent," Ellis said. "Insurance is also up a little bit because of the various weather conditions we've had."

He said the recession will continue to effect the region, and said agriculture is not immune from the country's economic problems.

"Agriculture is affected by so many things other than what happens on the farm or in the region," he said. "I feel that it will be a year to hold our dollars together and not a year to expect profit to be huge."

bblackwell@semissourian.com

388-3628

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