Fading from Gray

SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- If Gov. Gray Davis loses the October recall election, his replacement will have a few weeks at most to prepare to assume command of the nation's most populous state and the world's sixth-largest economy.

Unless Davis is replaced by Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, a fellow Democrat, some experts worry that such an abrupt change of power could lead to rash decisions and disorganization in state government.

Almost immediately, the new governor would need as many as 150 executives to take over management of the massive state bureaucracy that oversees everything from schools to highways to public health.

Then, there would be the need for a budget proposal outlining how to spend close to $100 billion next year, as well as plan to solve the $8 billion shortfall expected in the next fiscal year.

On top of that, the new governor would have to address the psychological needs of 35 million Californians in the wake of one of the most politically traumatic events in state history.

"It would be as if, after the Kennedy assassination, Lyndon Johnson was a Republican," said Barry Munitz, president of the J. Paul Getty Trust and the head of Davis' 1998 transition team. "It will be an extraordinarily complicated and challenging task."

During a normal election cycle, the governor-elect has two months to assemble a transition team and make plans for taking office.

Following a successful recall, however, the winner could take office as soon as the results are certified -- a process that must be finished within 39 days and could take as little as two weeks, said Bob Waste, a professor of public policy at California State University, Sacramento.

Ted Costa, one of the sponsors of the recall initiative, said if the replacement candidate wins by a wide margin over the other challengers, he would expect the transfer of power overnight.

That turnover time would make a difference: With the recall following so close on the heels of the legislative session, hundreds of bills could still be awaiting the governor's signature, bills that Davis could still have time to deal with before a new replacement took over if Davis lost the election.

Some Republicans fear the Democrat-dominated legislature will pass their favorite bills between now and Oct. 7 so Davis can sign them.

While a recall election winner may want a speedy transition to prevent that, quick turnover may not be a good idea for the state, Waste said.

Aside from one or two exceptions "there's no one in the race that has any experience running a government," he said.

Transitioning from campaigning to governing is "difficult even for the most veteran politicians."

Under normal circumstances, a candidate spends months, if not years, building a network for filling administration posts. But most of the challengers in the recall just entered the race a week ago and have minimal staff.

A new governor would have control over 1,100 appointments to top state jobs.

It's unlikely that, if Davis is recalled, the new governor would move against many of those state appointees right away, though Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger has promised to "clean house" if elected.

Munitz said finding even 10 top people to fill critical positions is no small task.

"You've got to find people that match up well with the agencies and issues," he said. "You've got to interview them, in some cases convince them to come to Sacramento. People have to stop what they are doing, talk things over with their families, move ... It is not simple."

The team a new governor assembles will also have to put together a budget that state law requires be presented to the legislature by Jan. 10. Because of printing requirements, the final draft must be completed by mid-December.

Although the deadline is extremely tight, the recall election actually provides a few extra weeks than it would if it were held as normal in the first week of November. Still, Waste said, the problems facing the new chief will be enormous.

After a bitter battle this summer, the Legislature passed a $99 billion spending plan for 2003-2004 that includes billions of dollars in spending cuts from last year as well as billions more in borrowing and deferrals. Even with that, finance officials say state spending will remain out of balance with tax collections and will start creating a new deficit that will grow to $8 billion sometime next year.

While a new governor may have good ideas of how to trim spending or what taxes to raise to balance the books, the new administration will have likely the same political gridlock to deal with between the Democratic majority and the Republican minority.