Experts bemoan lack of updated statistics on child abductions

NEW YORK -- Few crimes rivet the public as much as the abduction of a child and yet -- unlike murder, rape or even car theft -- there are no authoritative national statistics on the offense.

Kidnapping is not among the crimes covered by the FBI's annual uniform crime reports, and the last major federal study of child abductions used data from 1999, leaving experts to only guess the trends since then even as concern mounts about a possible surge of abductions by sexual predators using the Internet.

The Justice Department says the most recent nationwide data on child abductions is National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway and Throwaway Children, a report issued in 2002 and based on survey data mostly collected in 1999.

'Stereotypical kidnappings'

That report estimated that 58,200 children annually are victims of nonfamily abductions, with the vast majority held briefly for any number of reasons -- a dispute between girlfriend and boyfriend, for instance -- and returned safely, often without the filing of a police report.

The report estimated that there were 115 cases in 1999 of "stereotypical kidnappings" -- in which children were taken by nonfamily members for long periods, put up for ransom or killed by their abductors. In 40 percent of these cases, the child was killed.

However, the report said the actual number of stereotypical kidnappings could be anywhere from 60 to 170, and there has been no comprehensive federal effort since then to update the statistic.

University of New Hampshire sociologist David Finkelhor, a co-author of the 2002 report, believes the number of stereotypical kidnappings is stable or declining. But he remains dismayed at the lack of firm statistics to corroborate his suppositions and allay the fears of parents.

"You only have to think about a comparable situation in public health," he said. "If there were some disease killing even a few hundred kids a year, and parents were anxious, you know the Centers for Disease Control would have good statistics."

The Justice Department, using partial national statistics, estimated last year that 3,400 kidnappings of juveniles by strangers were reported to police in 2001. These would include many short-lasting abductions that did not rise to the level of the menacing "stereotypical kidnappings."

Police departments also are required to file prompt reports on any missing child, but these reports often do not provide details on whether an abduction might be involved.

Ernie Allen, president of the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children, said his organization is working with the Justice Department to develop a method for compiling annual data on missing and abducted children.

Like Finkelhor, Allen surmises that worst-case "stereotypical kidnappings" have declined in recent years, but he worries about a possible increase as more sexual predators use the Internet to contact youthful targets.

"Why we're pushing the Justice Department to provide annualized estimates is so we have the kind of data to track progress and variations from year to year," he said.

Allen expressed hope that a model of the new data-gathering system could be in place later this year.