EXPERT: BUSH POPULARITY WAS `UNEXPECTED'

CAPE GIRARDEAU -- The Persian Gulf War may have saved President George Bush's public image, but the public never expected much from him in the first place.

That's what prominent scholar Dr. George C. Edwards, a professor of political science at Texas A & M University, told a group of students and others Thursday during a lecture at Southeast Missouri State University.

He said that by far the most unanticipated aspect of Bush's presidency has been his high level of approval by the public, and stressed that despite the fact that Bush's presidency began on a "weak note," he has evolved into one of the most highly-praised presidents in history.

"His presidency began at a lower point in the polls than any other modern president, with a 51 percent approval rating," said Edwards. "That's low for a new president.

"Yet, by 1990, his popularity soared to 80 percent. From that point on, George Bush has had poll figures that have been exceeded only by John Kennedy."

Edwards is considered an expert on public opinion polls and job approval ratings of presidents. He lectures extensively throughout the United States and Europe and is the author of several books.

He noted that the Bush administration's strategy was to lower the public's expectations before Bush took office, leaving little room for disappointment. He said Bush presented a small agenda, with little indication he would try to bring about change, either domestically or abroad.

"Ronald Reagan, the supposed Great Communicator, was expected to be a hard act to follow," the professor said. "You can always meet low expectations."

Yet people perceive Bush as having more integrity, and other qualities that make up a great leader, than Reagan ever did, he added.

Reasons for this include the fact that world events have worked in Bush's favor, said Edwards. He said Bush "presided over the end of the cold war" and said the president's handling of the Persian Gulf War was instrumental in his defeat of the nagging "wimp factor" that had plagued him almost since he set foot in the White House.

Furthermore, domestic problems such as the savings and loan bailout, the war on drugs, the corruption of federal housing programs and the problem of the homeless have had little effect on Bush's popularity.

"The public seems to have dis-associated Bush with these problems," Edwards noted. "They blame Reagan" or other lower-ranking politicians.

Another reason for his popularity is because Bush identifies himself well with different segments and interest groups in society, Edwards said, even Democrats and non-whites two groups from which Reagan gained little approval.

Edwards said Bush "proved you don't have to be an actor to gain public support" and said Bush has established himself to be more substance than style, an image that sits well with the public.

Following his lecture, Edwards was asked by a student how an untimely, accidental death of the president would affect the current administration.

Edward explained that Vice President Dan Quayle would move into the role of the president, making him a likely candidate for the 1992 Republican nomination.

"That would give the Democrats a good chance to take over," he said. "Right now, the race in '92 does not look like it will be very competitive."