Election-night stunner: Turnout bucks expectations on straight-ticket voting

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- For many Americans, the day after an election brings relief. No more negative ads, no more automated phone calls, no more political junk mail.

For candidates, Election Day marks the culmination of months of hard work.

But for political scientists, it marks the beginning of their work, as they scrutinize the vote totals to test various political theories.

From an initial analysis, it appears Missouri's Nov. 7 elections may have debunked the prevailing theories about straight-ticket voting.

Until this year, Missourians had been able to vote for every Republican, Democratic or Libertarian candidate merely by checking one box at the top of the ballot, instead of placing a mark by each individual name.

But the Republican-led state legislature, over the objection of Democrats, did away with that option in a law that took effect Aug. 28.

The generally accepted political theory was that fewer votes would be cast in contests listed lower on the ballot, as people accustomed to the timesaving straight-ticket option grew weary of having to choose between numerous individual candidates.

Conventional wisdom assumed the repeal of the straight-ticket option would benefit Republicans.

Statistics seemed to suggest so. In the 2004 elections, roughly two-thirds of Missouri's local election authorities provided information to the secretary of state's office showing that 594,262 people cast straight Democratic ballots, compared with 497,805 who cast straight Republican ballots.

Republican Sen. Delbert Scott of Lowry City added the straight-ticket repeal to his election legislation (also containing a voter photo identification requirement since struck down by the courts) as a jab at Senate Democrats who had filibustered his bill.

Scott acknowledges some Republicans thought it would aid them this November, because more Democrats had cast straight-ticket ballots in the past.

Democratic Rep. Paul LeVota of Independence the assistant House minority leader, said lawmakers in his party opposed the straight-ticket repeal out of an assumption it was motivated to give an advantage to Republicans.

But it seems the repeal neither benefited Republicans nor resulted in fewer votes for down-ballot races.

More votes, not less

Associate political science professor David Webber of the University of Missouri-Columbia put the prevailing theories to the test by comparing the votes cast this year with those cast in November 2002, the last non-presidential election.

More specifically, he compared the votes for Republican and Democratic candidates in the U.S. Senate race -- listed at the top of the ballot -- with the total votes cast in the 17 state Senate races listed a little further down the ballot.

In 2002, the total state Senate votes amounted to 47.5 percent of the votes cast in the U.S. Senate race.

According to the conventional wisdom -- and Webber's own expectation -- that figure should have fallen with this year's repeal of the straight-ticket voting option.

Instead, it rose to 50.9 percent.

Judging from "the fact that the participation rate is as high or higher than in previous years, it doesn't look like abolishing straight-ticket voting had any impact," Webber said.

What's more, the repeal doesn't appear to have benefited Republicans over Democrats. There was a general upsurge for Democrats nationally this year, and Webber's figures show votes cast for U.S. and state Senate Democratic candidates both increased more than for Republicans this year.

But Webber is hesitant to declare the conventional theory about the repeal of straight-ticket voting a complete failure. That's because the end of this year's ballot included some high profile initiatives, particularly one on stem-cell research that may have kept more people interested in marking their ballots all the way from top to bottom.

Senate Minority Leader Maida Coleman, D-St. Louis, cited the same fact and suggested a potential Republican benefit may also have been neutralized by an effective educational campaign letting Missourians know they could no longer cast a single vote covering all of their preferred party's candidates.

Coleman, formerly of Sikeston, said a similar awareness campaign may be necessary in 2008.

Scott said the post-election analysis shows a positive effect from the repeal of the straight-ticket voting option. It forced people to vote for a candidate, not just a party, he said.

"If we were successful in anything, it's encouraging voters to think about the people all the way down the ticket. It makes them give more thought to voting," he said, "and from this analysis, it appears that may have happened."

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EDITOR'S NOTE: Capitol Correspondent David A. Lieb covers Missouri government and politics for The Associated Press.