Economic worries looming large in Mo. presidential vote

HERMITAGE, Mo. -- Recently retired, Floyd and Gail Worley aren't supposed to be worried about the economy. They have no jobs to lose, after all. But low interest rates and falling stock prices have put their retirement savings in jeopardy.

So is the economy an important factor in their choice for president?

"Heavens yes! That's the big deal," said Gail Worley, 63. "We're retired right now. It depends on the economy whether we're going to stay retired or not."

In the traditional swing state of Missouri, the economy is shaping up as the swing issue of the November presidential election. As the nation's financial crisis has worsened, polls that once showed an advantage for Republican John McCain now show him essentially even in Missouri with Democrat Barack Obama.

The economy is complicating Missouri's conventional political wisdom, which said that while Democrats lock down voters in the heavily populated urban centers of Kansas City and St. Louis, Republicans reign across rural Missouri.

But to sustain that small-town grip, McCain needs the support of skeptical Republican-leaning voters such as the Worleys. And Obama needs to do well in places such as their home of Hickory County, which has the highest unemployment rate in a state with its highest jobless rate since 1991.

With fewer than 10,000 residents in west-central Missouri, Hickory County is not a natural presidential battleground.

But the economic themes of the presidential race are amplified here. Young people generally leave for jobs elsewhere. Many of those who remain must commute a county or two away for work. With gas above $3 a gallon, that cuts substantially into their paychecks.

Public opinion polls have shown Missourians view Obama as more trustworthy than McCain when it comes to handling the economy. A pair of polls conducted in the past two weeks both showed Obama and McCain about even in Missouri -- in contrast to a slight lead enjoyed earlier by McCain.

But Obama faces some non-economic hurdles in the traditionally Republican parts of rural Missouri, where there's a general distrust of government, a general dislike of taxes, an affinity for guns and strong pro-life sentiments.

Missouri has a reputation as a bellwether because it has cast its electoral votes for the winning presidential candidate in every election except one (1956) in the past 100 years.

But political scientist Terry Jones, of the University of Missouri-St. Louis, casts doubt on the state's bellwether status, noting that President Bush had higher victory margins in Missouri than in the national popular vote. Jones believes Missouri now tilts slightly toward Republicans.

Consequently, McCain cannot win the presidency if he cannot win Missouri, Jones said, but it's possible Obama could become president even while losing Missouri.

Even among those concerned about the economy, Obama faces some challenges in rural Missouri.

Eric Turner, a 30-year-old mobile home salesman and cattle hand in Hickory County, wants a president who will help lower gas prices, keep interest rates affordable and support policies "for the working man." He's leaning toward McCain, but not because he thinks McCain is any better in those areas than Obama.

"To be honest with you, it's his name (Obama). I feel like we're kind of putting someone in there from Iraq," Turner said. "I shouldn't judge him like that, but I do, and I know a lot of other people do."

Obama tried to address those doubts during a summertime swing through southern Missouri, telling a crowd in Rolla: "Nobody thinks that Bush or McCain have a real answer for the challenges we face. So what they are going to try to do is make you scared of me. You know, he's not patriotic enough, he's got a funny name, you know, he doesn't look like all of those other presidents on the dollar bills."

To take Missouri, Obama doesn't need to win rural counties, but simply narrow his loss margins there while racking up sizable advantages in St. Louis and Kansas City.

"I think we're going to do better in rural areas than our (Democrat) nominees have done in recent elections," said Obama senior campaign strategist David Axelrod. "We're reaching a lot of them, and we're going to reach more with this message of economic change."

McCain also has been stressing the economy in Missouri. On his way to the Senate this past week to vote for a $700 billion financial bailout measure, McCain made a hastily arranged stop at the Truman Presidential Library and Museum to deliver an economic speech. During a Thursday debate in St. Louis, vice presidential running mate Sarah Palin described their campaign as a "ticket that wants to create jobs and bolster our economy."

But McCain's Missouri co-chairman, Jack Jackson, said the economy may not be the ticket for a McCain victory in the state.

"I think the economy is going to play down after this bailout," Jackson said, "and people are going to stand up in the morning and say, 'Where does he stand on the war, does he support my son or daughter or a veteran who has already served? Is he pro-life, which a majority of Missourians are? Does he support the Second Amendment?"'

For now, though, those issues are secondary to the economy for voters such as Gail and Floyd Worley, the recently retired couple concerned about their financial security.

Gail Worley, who has a history of voting Republican, said she will probably back McCain as "the lesser of the two evils" and because of a poor gut feeling about Obama. Her husband seemed a little more noncommittal.

"I really don't want Obama, but I really don't know if I want another Republican," Floyd Worley said.