Earthquake risks studied along New Madrid fault

Insurance executives from as far away as Vermont, risk management people from Texas and New York City, and a state senator stood in the shadow of the Bill Emerson Memorial Bridge Wednesday to gather information about earthquakes and the risks they pose for their areas.

"We didn't organize this trip to alarm people about large earthquakes, which only happen once every 400 to 500 years, but to collect information to assess risk, factor into land use, planning and construction," said Phyllis J. Steckel, an independent registered geologist, who organized the an earthquake field trip for business executives and policy makers from across the country.

The three-day tour took more than 40 participants by bus through St. Louis to Memphis to view structures and geological sites that are representative of the seismic threat in the area.

"Earthquakes in the 6 to 7 magnitude range occur more frequently and for that size earthquake, we are long overdue," Steckel said.

A quake of that size would inflict extensive damage, according to Steckel, because so many structures were built without any consideration of potential seismic activity. That means buildings could shift on their foundations or partially collapse, utilities lines could break, underground pipes could be broken and the ground could crack.

"There have been a number of little ones the last 10 to 15 years around here," she said, but there is no way to predict when a large one will hit. "It's pretty much a mystery," she said.

However, over the years, scientists have learned a great deal about earthquakes and how to build structures to withstand them, Steckel said, but "we haven't always applied it. There is no requirement to design earthquake-resistant buildings. That's one of the reasons for this trip."

Since Iben Browning's prediction of a major quake hitting the area in 1990 failed to materialize, people lost interest in the subject, said Mark A. Winkler, an area coordinator with State Emergency Management Agency.

"We tend to focus on what is in front of us," Winkler said.

Winkler was alluding to the heightened awareness Browning, a self-styled geologist, created when he made the prediction and the steps people took to make area structures more earthquake-proof.

Lack of preparedness

"If people are prepared for that great earthquake, everything else should be a piece of cake," said Winkler, who views his role as making people aware of the hazard and helping reduce losses.

Though cities in California require structures to built with earthquake-resistant designs, few cities in the New Madrid Fault zone, which extends from about Charleston, Mo., to about Marked Tree, Ark., do so.

Thousands of earthquakes have occurred in the region, including the devastating quake of 1811-1812, which consisted of several years of quakes that nearly about destroyed New Madrid, Mo.

"Some people think that because his [Browning's] forecast was wrong there is no more earthquake risk in this region and they're wrong ... there is high earthquake risk in this region," Steckel said.

Buzz Baldwin traveled here from Hartford, Conn., to gather the latest information on the New Madrid seismic zone for his company, the Hartford Financial Services Group. He was paying close attention to Mike Helpingstine, a MoDOT operation engineer, who was describing construction of the Emerson Memorial Bridge and pointing out earthquake design features.

"I want to bring back information that will help us with underwriting, and analyzing and managing exposure," Baldwin said.

Joseph Janeczek Jr., director of risk and environmental management for The Walt Disney Co., was also there to learn whatever he could about earthquake risk because it was a new topic for him.

"We have operations in areas prone to earthquakes so I signed up for this tour," said Janeczek. "Whatever I learn, I learn."

State Sen. Maida Coleman, D-St. Louis, hailed the tour as a "great investment" for the state because it gives it a heads up and plans to address the issue of requiring buildings to be earthquake resistant.

"I'm especially concerned about the lack of codes," she said before hopping on the bus that was ready to go to the next site.

lcianci@semissourian.com

335-6611, extension 127

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Earthquake facts

* Earthquakes in the central United States travel greater distances than those in the West because rocks are more uniform, less broken up and older than in the West. * Rocks east of the Rocky Mountains are hundreds of millions of years older than those west of the Rockies. * The San Andreas fault is visible for its entire 700-mile length. * The New Madrid fault is buried under 2,000 to 3,000 feet of Mississippi Valley mud and silt. * Earthquakes are often associated with movement of the great plates that form the earth's outer layers, like the San Andreas Fault where the North America plate and the abutting Pacific plate scrape against each other as they move in opposite directions. * The New Madrid fault lies in the middle of the North America plate. Breaks in the plate that never completely ruptured or broke apart form a weak zone in the crust. * There have been three major earthquakes in the Midwest states in the last 2,000 years. One every 600-700 years. * In the West, earthquakes happen at least five times as often.