DISTRICTS WILL BE REDRAWN; U.S. HOUSE SEAT BOUNDARIES VIEWED

CAPE GIRARDEAU -- The first of several plans that will be floated for reaction on how to redraw the state's nine U.S. House districts would considerably increase the likelihood of a Republican holding the 8th District seat.

Under a plan released last week by a Senate committee studying redistricting, heavily Democratic Ste. Genevieve County would be moved into the 3rd Congressional District of Rep. Richard Gephardt. The 8th District would also lose Sullivan Township in Franklin County.

In return, the 8th District would pick up from the 7th District in southwest Missouri three traditionally Republican counties: Ozark, Douglas and Wright counties, and a small portion of Dallas County. That would shift about 40,000 traditionally Republican votes into the 8th District.

State Rep. Mary Kasten, R-Cape Girardeau, a member of the House Committee on Congressional Redistricting, said the panel has concluded hearings around the state and will begin drawing its version of district lines next week when the General Assembly returns from its spring break.

She predicted the first House version will be different from the Senate version.

State Rep. Gene Copeland, D-New Madrid, who is a member of the House committee, is opposing the move to take Ste. Genevieve County out of the 8th District. That opposition likely will bring a different 8th District in the House version.

Copeland has expressed support for moving Texas County into the 8th. Texas County has about 21,000 residents and, although leaning Democratic, it is regarded as very conservative.

Sen. John Dennis, D-Benton, has also indicated that he is against taking Ste. Genevieve County out of the 8th District.

Sen. Roger Wilson, D-Columbia, chairman of the Senate committee, released the plan last week so senators could study it and make suggestions before a final version is brought to the floor.

Eventually, each house will pass a redistricting plan that will have to be resolved by a conference committee. If legislators fail to come up with a plan, then a judicial panel will have to complete the job.

Lawmakers struggled with the issue in 1980 and finally had to give up and yield to the courts. This time the task should be easier since Missouri will retain all nine U.S. House seats. Ten years ago, the state lost a House seat and had to mold 10 districts into nine.

Complicating this year's process is that U.S. Rep. William Clay, who represents the 1st District, comprising mainly the city of St. Louis, has to pick up about 80,000 people to reach the ideal district size of 568,564.

Most of those residents will come from the 2nd District, represented by freshman Rep. Joan Kelly Horn, a Ladue Democrat. As part of the plan, about 16,000 residents of Gephardt's district would have to be shifted to Horn's. Adding Ste. Genevieve County would enable Gephardt to make up those votes.

The 7th District, represented by Mel Hancock, a Springfield Republican, has increased in population. Shifting counties to the 8th District would help account for growth in the Springfield area.

Republican U.S. Rep. Bill Emerson broke a longtime Democratic stranglehold on the Bootheel congressional seat in 1980, and has successfully won re-election every two years since by building a strong following of conservative Democrats and independents. Also during that time, parts of the 8th District have tended to support Republican candidates, particularly at the state and national levels.

There has been a prevailing feeling among political observers in the district that, once Emerson leaves office, the district easily could be recaptured by a Democrat with a conservative philosophy. But the Democratic tilt of the 8th District would be severely altered under the Senate plan.

The 8th will have to gain some population to the west because it needs 15,583 additional residents to be the ideal size. Because of population losses in the city of St. Louis, and the need to find additional population for the three congressman in that area, there is no room for this district to expand north.

Lloyd Smith, administrative assistant to Emerson, said there really is nothing that could be done in redistricting that would hurt Emerson's chance of winning re-election. "Any areas they could give us are very conservative by nature, and that would be consistent with Congressman Emerson's record," said Smith.

He said Emerson could handle the addition of the southwest Missouri counties, but "logistically, that would be difficult to travel to and from." He said, "We would have the largest geographic district in the state of Missouri."

Smith said he anticipates that the Sullivan Township of Franklin County, with its 5,661 people, will be taken out of the district.

Smith said Emerson is planning to "let the legislative process work. We hope legislators can come to grips with it rather than going to the courts for a decision."

State Rep. Herb Fallert, D-Ste. Genevieve, said Monday he has mixed feelings about his county being taken out of the 8th District. "It is important to realize this is just a preliminary plan and there hasn't been much discussion yet," said Fallert. "The Senate plan came out last week, and there has been no meeting of the minds, so to speak, with Ste. Genevieve County to get any input from them."

He said, "I think Ste. Genevieve relates with the present 8th District as it is rather than by being thrown into more of an urbanized area that the 3rd District would be."

Fallert said there might be advantages to being represented by Gephardt, who holds the No. 2 leadership position in the House right now, but, if Gephardt leaves, the county could be overshadowed by urban interests.

"We can be blindfolded and say this is a good deal, but we've got to remember this is for 10 years," said Fallert. "I just don't think we're ready to fit into an urbanized area."

Eight District Democratic Chairman R. Todd McBride of Cape Girardeau said Democrats strongly oppose the Senate plan. McBride said he has talked with Copeland and favors bringing Texas County into the district.

If any area has to go out of the district, it should be Phelps County because it is not as closely aligned with Southeast Missouri, McBride said.

Said McBride: "Ste. Genevieve is a big part of Southeast Missouri and needs to stay in the 8th District. The county would be lost in the 3rd District. I see this as more of a political thing to take care of Gephardt."

Blair Moran of Sikeston, McBride's Republican counterpart, said the Senate plan will help the GOP.

"As a Republican, I don't think we can be hurt," said Moran. "If anything, we will be strengthened. If we get some of Hancock's district, then those three counties will help the Republican Party retain the seat even after Emerson retires," said Moran.

"From a partisan point of view, the Republicans would not be losing anything if Ste. Genevieve went to Gephardt."

In 1990, as Emerson was winning re-election by a landslide, Democratic challenger Russ Carnahan carried the county.

Moran said if Texas County were added Emerson would still do well. He pointed out that former Congressman Richard Ichord, a Democrat, was from Texas County and has in the past endorsed Emerson because of his conservative philosophy.

"I think the people of Texas County would be very pleased with the type of representation Bill Emerson offers," said Moran.