Democratic primary challenge to Holden in '04 seen as unlikely

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- Joe Maxwell once raised quail, and he recalls how the thumb-sized baby birds seemed to get along so well.

"They are all buddies until one of them stumbles or has a weakness or injury," says Missouri's lieutenant governor.

Maxwell's rat-a-tat delivery slows to dead seriousness.

"Then you've never seen anything ... so ... vicious ... as how they all attack ... the weak one."

That's just like politics, notes Maxwell, who has been on a speculative short list of names considered possible 2004 Democratic primary challengers to Gov. Bob Holden.

Holden's first two years in office have been rocky.

The term started with a $1 million-plus inaugural party; Holden apologized for staging such a costly event in a slumping economy.

Then the administration lurched to a controversial executive order expanding collective bargaining for state workers after lawmakers repeatedly killed the idea. It bumped along through hundreds of millions of dollars in spending cuts to balance the budget. It hit many potholes, from his office's employment of an illegal alien to media disclosures about Holden's frequent and sometimes inefficient use of state airplanes.

Democrats grumbled privately about their governor; some legislative candidates shunned him this year.

But there will be no Holden challenge from Maxwell. The lieutenant governor says he will ask voters for a second term and "if he runs for re-election, I'm supporting Holden."

Will run for re-election

In a separate interview, Holden cast away any suspense. Asked whether he was seeking re-election, he didn't hesitate in replying: "Yes!"

"I have not made an official announcement. That's down the road. But I will run. I like being governor," Holden told The Associated Press.

The governor specifically ruled out a 2004 challenge to Republican Sen. Christopher Bond, who is widely expected to seek a fourth term.

Maxwell's comments, and those of other influential Democratic figures interviewed recently, indicate that a serious challenge to Holden from within his own party is unlikely -- and would be a steep uphill run.

Why?

An incumbent governor, even one who has made unpopular budget cuts, retains a lot of power -- meaning ways to reward friends and punish enemies. He can withhold spending. He can sign or veto bills. He can make appointments or refuse them. He can issue executive orders, pardons and commutations. He has an easy time getting news coverage while lower-ranking officials hunger for publicity.

It's an indicator of a governor's power that no prominent Democrats interviewed wanted to be quoted questioning Holden's political viability.

'Solid team player'

And Democrats who may have been thinking of challenging Holden ran headlong into the Nov. 5 election results, in which the GOP finally seized both legislative chambers.

"I believe the Democratic Party is going through a very troubled time and I have always been a solid team player," Maxwell said. "It's hard to challenge a governor if he's got fire in the belly to be re-elected."

Besides Maxwell, the names most often mentioned as possible Democratic challengers to Holden are State Auditor Claire McCaskill and Attorney General Jay Nixon.

Neither Nixon nor McCaskill immediately returned calls Wednesday seeking comment about their plans in 2004.

McCaskill has made no secret of her ambition to be governor, going so far as to say she plans to run in 2008.