DECISION PENDING ON RACE; REP. EMERSON IFFY ABOUT SENATE RUN

In election years Labor Day is considered the traditional kickoff of the fall campaign season. In non-election years, the holiday is considered the day by which decisions must be made about political plans for the next year.

Labor Day has come and gone, and U.S. Rep. Bill Emerson said Tuesday he's still undecided about whether to seek the seat of retiring Sen. John Danforth next year. Emerson, who has been mulling over the race since Danforth's surprise announcement Feb. 1, admits the time for making a decision is drawing near.

"Conventional wisdom says I should have made up my mind and made the leap by this time," said Emerson. "That's cursory conventional wisdom. I don't believe any harm has been done in any corner by listening to what people have to say and taking time to give this serious consideration."

Emerson said it is taking time to decide because Danforth's announcement was unexpected and he had given the race no thought. In addition, the seven-term congressman said he takes his job one term at a time and never really focuses on whether to seek re-election until October.

Lloyd Smith, chief of staff to Emerson, said a poll that had been planned to gauge Emerson's support in a Senate race has not yet been taken. Initially it was planned in late May, but was delayed to a time when voters would be more focused on 1994 races. In July, when the poll was to have been taken, flooding problems led to another delay.

Smith said he anticipates being in the field with a poll within 10 days.

"We just decided not to go into the field with a poll until after Labor Day. To do otherwise would be to get results that were not truly reflective of what people were thinking at the time," said Smith.

Emerson said he wants to get the polling done as soon as possible but his efforts recently have been focused on flooding problems. Emerson said he has had political discussions about a Senate race and has a pollster and political consultants in place that could be used in a Senate bid.

He said he also believes the "political landscape" has settled enough to give him a clear perspective of what voters feel about his candidacy for higher office. Emerson said he hasn't made any decisions about 1994, including whether to even run for his House seat again.

"I will really focus on this the next several weeks," said Emerson. I am not dallying; I am taking this under consideration very deliberately, rationally and systematically, and simply have not come to a conclusion. I haven't wanted to make my political decision rushing against the clock. I want to make the right decision for me, my district and the state. All those things do not come easily."

Emerson's campaign committee, already in place for fund-raising, could be used in a Senate race.

If Emerson enters the race for the Republican nomination, he will likely encounter former Gov. John Ashcroft. Now an attorney in Clayton, the former two-term governor has filed papers for an exploratory committee. Although he has not formally announced, Ashcroft has made it clear he intends to run.

At this point, Emerson would be the most serious challenger to Ashcroft in a GOP primary.

Emerson said he has talked with Ashcroft several times, and is not motivated by any "anti-Ashcroft" sentiment that might be out there.

"I'm not angry with John Ashcroft. He is not a factor in my motivation at all. I am looking at this Senate thing from the point of who do I think, based on the complexity and familiarity with federal legislation, would be the right person to carry the message I feel needs to be carried in 1994."

Playing a part in Emerson's assessment for 1994 is that the political landscape looks pretty good for Republicans - not only in a Senate race but also in a race to fill his House seat in the 8th District.

Traditionally, in election years following presidential elections, the party of the president loses seats in Congress - often in large numbers.

"In the past, that has been a detriment for me to overcome, but now I am a beneficiary of that," said Emerson.

He said that figures into his deliberations, as well as the likelihood that a Republican could be chosen to succeed him in the House.

Emerson refuses to set a deadline, but admitted time is running out.

Said Emerson: "I no longer have a five- to six-month grace period, but have lost nothing to this juncture by not making a decision. If I am going to run a statewide race, I should have a skeleton of an organization put together by mid-November and fund-raising under way by that time."

He said: "In the environment that exists in 1994, it is an imminently doable thing from the political perspective. I believe I could run statewide and transfer my immense Southeast Missouri coalition into a statewide coalition of conservatives. I think 1994 will be a good climate for conservatives. I believe this is something I can do if I want to do it."