Death of American detained in North Korea baffles experts

SEOUL, South Korea -- North Korea's missile and nuclear tests, its carefully scripted propaganda bluster, even its military threats: Far from the scattershot workings of a madman, most of this fits the playbook of a small, proud country well used to stoking tensions to get concessions it would otherwise not receive from surrounding big powers.

What happened to Otto Warmbier, an American college student who died days after North Korea released him from detention in a coma, is far more difficult to make sense of.

It jars so strikingly with the fates of most past detained Americans, outside observers are left struggling not only with the mystery of what killed Warmbier but with what his death means for attempts by Washington and its allies to stop North Korea's pursuit of a nuclear-tipped ICBM that can target the U.S. mainland.

"The treatment of Otto Warmbier is beyond the pale of North Korea's usual standards," said John Delury, an Asia expert at Seoul's Yonsei University. "It's worth a forceful response. The U.S. government should not just throw up its hands and say, 'This is just how North Korea is.' But how do you do that in a smart way where there is some modicum of accountability?"

It never may be known what happened, but there are some clues -- as well as speculation.

The University of Virginia student was medically evacuated from North Korea last week, more than a year after a court sentenced him to 15 years in prison with hard labor for allegedly trying to steal a propaganda banner.

North Korean diplomats at the United Nations had urgently requested a face-to-face meeting with U.S. officials in New York. During the June 6 meeting, Washington learned of Warmbier's condition.

His family said it was told he fell into a coma soon after his March 2016 sentencing after contracting botulism and taking a sleeping pill. Doctors in Cincinnati said they found no active sign of botulism or evidence of beatings. They say he had severe brain damage, but they don't know what caused it.

Some observers believe North Korea became worried because Warmbier's condition suddenly worsened.

"North Korea sent him back to the United States before he died because more questions would have been raised about his death and the situation would have gotten worse if it had returned his dead body," said Cheong Seong-jang, an analyst at the private Sejong Institute in South Korea.

Others believe it is unlikely North Korea intentionally harmed Warmbier because he was valuable as a political pawn. Poor hygienic conditions, diet or bad medical care may have been responsible for a coma North Korean doctors couldn't handle.

Or maybe North Korea concealed his medical condition for so long in the hopes he'd recover.