Data suggest police stop minority drivers at higher rates

On paper, police in Southeast Missouri appear to be stopping minority drivers at a disproportionately high rate.

But local law enforcement officials say data released by Attorney General Chris Koster's office may have more to do with big roads passing through small communities than with any bias on the part of officers making the stops.

Koster's office released a report May 30 showing the "disparity index" for every jurisdiction in Missouri.

Dr. Scott Decker, a criminology professor and one of the consultants involved in the project, said the index is tied to the demographics of the local driving-age population. Values greater than 1 indicate a group is overrepresented in traffic stops, while values less than 1 indicate under-representation.

"We compare the percentage of stops accounted for by each race/ethnic group to the proportion that race/ethnic group presents in the jurisdiction," Decker explained in an email to the Southeast Missourian. "So if 20 percent of residents in City Z were African-Americans, and 20 percent of the stops were accounted for by African-Americans, there would be no disparity."

Small samples

Morley, Missouri, had the highest disparity index in the region for black drivers, at 26.14, compared with 0.71 for white drivers.

At first glance, the community appears to be targeting black drivers.

"It looks that way on paper," said Paul Johnson, Morley's only police officer.

But on paper, a major highway carrying a large number of minority drivers through a small, predominantly white community can skew the data.

Johnson said that is the case in Morley, where he stopped 45 drivers in 2013 -- 30 of them white and 15 black.

"It's just smaller numbers. I mean, it puts my percentage (up)," he said.

Decker, foundation professor of criminology and criminal justice at Arizona State University, acknowledged the potential for drawing false conclusions from the disparity index.

"There are no corrections for sample size, though we do offer a caution that small numbers of stops can make small absolute differences look large in percentage terms," he said.

Incomplete data

Without knowing the demographics of the drivers themselves, it is virtually impossible to determine whether a particular group of drivers is over- or underrepresented in a given jurisdiction's traffic stops.

For instance, Johnson runs stationary radar on U.S. 61, which connects several communities with minority populations much larger than that of Morley.

According to the 2010 U.S. Census, Morley had a total population of 697 residents -- 95 percent of them white, and just 1.1 percent black.

The range on the radar is long enough that Johnson can determine the car's speed long before he can determine the race of the driver, he said.

"I clock you at a distance of over 100 yards or greater," he said. "... I don't stop the person. I stop the vehicle."

Meanwhile, according to the Missouri Department of Transportation, an average of 2,384 cars per day -- more than three times Morley's population -- travel through town along U.S. 61, and the demographics of nearby communities vary.

Just off U.S. 61 about two miles south of Morley is Haywood City, Missouri. Of Haywood City's 206 residents, 90.3 percent are black, and 5.3 percent are white. To get to Benton, Missouri, or Cape Girardeau, Haywood City residents must pass through Morley on U.S. 61.

Farther south, 26.2 percent of Sikeston, Missouri's, 16,318 residents are black; to the north lies Cape Girardeau, with a population of 37,941 residents, 12.8 percent of whom are black.

With significantly larger black populations in communities along U.S. 61 near Morley, it seems likely the demographics of drivers using the highway are much different than those of the community itself, potentially inflating the town's disparity index.

The I-55 effect

Perry County, Missouri, sees a similar effect from the presence of Interstate 55, Sheriff Gary Schaaf said.

"We do checks a lot on I-55, and that just happens," he said.

"You can't tell what color they are when you run radar at night. It just works out that way."

Census data show Perry County had a population of 19,072 in 2013 -- 97.3 percent white and just one-half of 1 percent black.

By comparison, Missouri's population is 83.7 percent white and 11.7 percent black.

A Missouri Department of Transportation traffic count map shows 15,184 to 16,684 cars pass through Perry County on I-55 daily.

Schaaf said he asks his deputies to spend some time on Interstate 55 every shift.

"I don't have my guys out on the interstate all the time, but I do like them to go down there at least once, if not twice, (per shift) to check and see if everything's OK -- nobody stranded on the side of the road," he said.

Like Johnson, Schaaf said Perry County deputies use radar to enforce speed limits and have no idea who is in a vehicle before they stop it.

"They don't (profile). You can't really see what color the people are when you're out there," he said. "... You have their speed before they get close enough to see what color they are."

Not all communities along Interstate 55 have large disparity indices, however.

In Scott and Cape Girardeau counties, black and white drivers are stopped at similar rates.

Interstate 55 passes through both counties, but its effects may be mitigated by the demographics of the counties themselves, which are much closer to the statewide average: Scott County is 11.7 percent black, and Cape Girardeau County is 7.7 percent black, according to Census data.

Probable cause

Scott County Sheriff Rick Walter said officers in all jurisdictions receive training to prevent racial profiling.

"It's mandatory that our department take those classes. That's something that goes on every year," Walter said.

He said the training emphasizes the importance of probable cause.

Probable cause means an officer has a legitimate reason to suspect a crime has occurred -- for instance, an officer clocks a driver going 15 miles per hour above the speed limit, or a car is weaving erratically.

"What these guys are really training on is your vehicle stops are probable cause," Walter said.

"... That's what you stop them for -- you're making the vehicle stop for probable cause."

Like Johnson and Schaaf, Walter noted population affects percentages.

"If you take Kelso, for instance, there's as far as I know no blacks living in Kelso, so if the city officer stops two people that year that are minority or black ... how's that going to look percentage-wise?" he said.

Other factors

Walter said population also can affect how quickly people notice a stranger, which might drive up the number.

"I think that's just typical of small towns, whether the person -- no matter what their race or gender -- people recognize maybe a new face in town ... somebody that they're not used to seeing in a small town -- they'll get noticed quicker," he said.

Cape Girardeau's disparity index was 1.86 for black drivers and 0.91 for white drivers.

In a recent email, Cape Girardeau Police Chief Wes Blair said multiple factors contribute to disparity rates, making it difficult to determine exactly why drivers from one group seem to be stopped at a higher rate than others.

"Without drilling into the data on each stop, it is difficult to determine an exact cause for the statistical data," Blair wrote.

"One possible cause could be that communities with an above average population of non-minorities that have major highways and are destination spots for retail, tourism, medical could attract more minority drivers than the local population, thereby skewing the results. Another potential scenario could be the enforcement activities of the individual officers.

"An officer assigned to a beat in a high-minority part of town that is more active in enforcement efforts than an officer assigned to another part of town could also skew the results."

Regardless of the numbers in a given community, Walter said he hopes the days of racial profiling are over.

"I would hope to think that that doesn't happen any more, that they're not being profiled, and if we're making some stops, they're for the right reasons," he said.

epriddy@semissourian.com

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