Crime trends defy perceptions

A woman's body is found in a burning car in a Scott County cornfield; her own son is charged with her murder.

A Jackson man confesses to strangling his estranged wife and burying her body in a remote area of Southern Illinois, accessible only by boat.

Two men are shot to death in a car on a Cape Girardeau street. Their killer's identity remains unknown.

The individual crimes may be horrifying, but if FBI statistics are correct, behind the startling headlines is a reassuring reality: Violence has become less common over the past 20 years.

The numbers

Data from the FBI show the violent crime rate in Missouri climbed from a low of 166 violent crimes per 100,000 people in 1961 to a peak of 763 in 1991. But it has been trending steadily downward ever since, reaching a low of 450.9 in 2012 -- a 40.9 percent drop in 21 years.

Nationwide, FBI figures show a similar trend, with violent crimes rising from a low of 158.1 per 100,000 people in 1961 to a high of 758.2 in 1991 before plunging 47 percent to 386.9 in 2012, the most recent year for which complete data were available.

The murder rate has followed a similar pattern, with the statewide rate rising from a low of 4.4 murders per 100,000 people in 1960 to a peak of 11.3 in 1993 before trending generally downward. In 2012, Missouri's murder rate was 6.5, while the national murder rate was 4.7, down from a peak of 9.8 in 1991.

The FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting website did not have data for individual communities stretching back as far as the state and national numbers, but Cape Girardeau's violent crime rate rose from 87.3 crimes per 100,000 people in 1989 to 691.1 in 2007. Since then, the number has dropped, then risen, then dropped again, with a violent crime rate of 631.6 per 100,000 in 2012.

Local murder rates appeared to be declining -- dropping from a peak of 14.3 murders per 100,000 people in 1992 to a low of 2.6 in 2010 and 2011 -- but the number had crept back up to 7.8 in 2012, and an analysis of 2013 data from the Missouri State Highway Patrol shows the rate was even higher last year, reaching 12.88.

A closer look

Murder rates may not tell the whole story, however.

While the number of murder victims rose in Cape Girardeau -- from three in 2012 to five in 2013 -- the number of instances in which people were murdered remained constant, and the types of homicides were similar.

In 2012 and 2013, for instance, Cape Girardeau saw murder-suicide cases involving people from outside the area who happened to commit their crimes in the city.

Both years also had fatal shootings in which the suspect and victim were neighbors.

Each of the 2012 cases, however, involved a single victim, while two of the three cases in 2013 were double homicides, raising the murder rate by more than 66 percent even as the number of incidents remained constant.

Awareness

Media reports can affect public perceptions about crime, said Capt. David James of the Cape Girardeau County Sheriff's Department.

"To me, I think that some of the more serious crime is being publicized more, and it probably gives the perception to people that it's just getting worse," he said.

For instance, James said, two or three homicides may occur within a week or two of each other.

"It's really headline-grabbing stuff, and it just makes people say, 'Oh, my God, what's this world coming to?'" he said.

Awareness increases, and a nervous public begins reporting more crimes, James said.

"Every time someone shoots a BB gun there, there's a shots-fired call," he said.

James and Darin Hickey, public information officer for the Cape Girardeau Police Department, both said social media play a role in public awareness of crime.

Services such as Facebook and Twitter allow individuals to share information about crimes that may not be covered by traditional media, Hickey said.

For instance, one local Facebook user spends hours listening to police scanner traffic and posting everything he hears, from shots-fired calls to domestic disputes.

"Ten years ago, five years ago, that never would have existed," Hickey said.

Traditional media also have an impact, James said, noting before CNN and other 24-hour news channels existed, news was televised on just three networks, during designated time slots wedged between other programming.

Because time was limited, broadcasters couldn't report on every violent crime that occurred, he said.

"They couldn't possibly publicize all of it, and now you've got 24/7 news," James said. "They've got to fill up the time with something."

Increased coverage can leave viewers with the impression that crime is more rampant, which may or may not be the case, James said.

That perception can be beneficial if it spurs people to become more involved in their communities and to work more closely with police to help reduce crime, Hickey said.

"You hear it over and over and over again, then you become more aware of it. ... When people are more aware of it, they're keeping their eyes out more," he said.

Citizens' cooperation can make crimes easier to prosecute, Hickey said.

"If there is a crime, and citizens are involved, then we're much more successful in arresting and prosecuting criminals," he said.

Caveats

James cautioned against placing too much faith in statewide or national statistics, because individual agencies may make mistakes in reporting data to the FBI, and agencies often receive reports that turn out to be false, sometimes because the reporting party simply does not know the legal terms for certain crimes.

For example, a break-in that occurred while a homeowner was on vacation -- which would be classified as a burglary -- might be erroneously reported to police as a robbery because the caller does not know the term "robbery" refers to a specific type of theft involving a confrontation between perpetrator and victim.

"I just don't know that ... every agency is doing it right," James said. "... Those national levels of stats are kind of skewed a little bit."

And while the quantity of violent crimes may be dropping, James said the severity of those crimes has changed since he began his law-enforcement career in 1982.

For instance, Southeast Missouri had drug dealers 30 years ago, but their conflicts seldom became more serious than a fist fight, he said. Today, the same conflicts are more likely to lead to gunfire.

"On a police officer standpoint, I think that society is getting more violent, and I think it is because of drugs," James said.

At the same time, criminals have less respect for authority figures, including police, and are more likely to target them, he said.

"People have no respect for authority," James said. "We've all become victims of violent crime. ... We're under assault. That's why you have the militarization of police -- they're getting more body armor and more equipment to match the crimes."

epriddy@semissourian.com

388-3642