CONGRTESSMAN: DOLE WILL BE GOP NOMINEE

Although the Republican National Convention is still several months away and party primaries and caucuses have just begun, U.S. Rep. Bill Emerson is willing to go out on a limb and pick a winner.

"I believe very strongly that Bob Dole will be our nominee," Emerson said.

However, Emerson admitted he felt the same way in 1988 when the Kansas senator lost the GOP nomination to George Bush. He still feels he was correct in his choice then, but added with tongue in cheek that a lot of other people were wrong.

"I think Bob Dole is probably the most qualified person ever to come to the door of opportunity to be president," Emerson said.

Emerson serves on the executive committee which oversees the party's national campaign and, along with U.S. Sen. Christopher "Kit" Bond, is co-chairman of the Dole campaign in Missouri.

During his 35 years of experience in Washington, the Senate majority leader has developed a reputation as a compromiser and consensus builder. Emerson called him "a master of diplomacy" and said that as chief executive Dole would prove adept at smoothing over disagreements with the legislative branch, regardless of which party is in control after November.

However, Emerson feels the Republicans likely will retain the Senate and House majorities they gained in 1994. With the GOP in control of both branches, conservative goals will be easier to achieve, Emerson said.

A key to bringing that scenario about is to keep the focus on failings in the Clinton administration, Emerson said. One of those is the president's stalemate with Congress over the budget. Emerson puts the blame for the recent government shutdowns solely on the president.

"If the president did not want to shut the government down, he could have signed the budget all along," Emerson said. That fact, he added, seems to have been lost in the deluge of media hype and political rhetoric.

Emerson is confident a budget deal will be struck which will preserve Republican plans for a balanced budget by 2002 and include a Medicare fix and capital gains tax relief.

Emerson accuses the president of practicing demagoguery by saying Republicans wish to slash Medicare and give tax cuts to the rich. Emerson said the Republican plan would actually increase Medicare spending per beneficiary from $4,800 to $7,100 over seven years.

He also countered the contention that the reducing the capital gains tax is a tax cut for the rich. "Seventy-five percent of people who want relief under capital gains make $75,000 or less," he said.

Of more immediate concern to Emerson is passing agriculture legislation. He supports swift House passage of a farm bill adopted in the Senate.

While he doesn't entirely approve of all the provisions in the Senate version, Emerson said the arrival of planting season in some parts of the country makes timely passage a necessity.

"The fact that the old law has expired and the new one is not on the books yet is a problem," he said.

Emerson views farm subsidies as a safety net to protect farmers when prices plummet due to foreign dumping rather than a guaranteed check for farmers even when markets are strong.

House Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts of Kansas supports guaranteed subsidies for seven years, then the elimination of the program. That disagreement led to a spat between the two which prompted some Capitol Hill publications to report that Emerson had fallen from favor with the Republican House leadership.

Emerson, the vice-chairman of the committee, is seeking the committee chairmanship from Roberts, who is running for Senate seat this year.

Despite those reports, Emerson said he was assured by House Speaker Newt Gingrich that he is still the top candidate for the post.