COLDER WEATHER COMING, BUT WHITE CHRISTMAS CHANCY

The chances of having a white Christmas next week are less than 50-50, according to the National Weather Service. But with the unpredictability of the weather lately, don't even bet on that, meteorologists say.

"There hasn't been much consistency in what the computer runs have been saying," said Mike York, a meteorologist at the NWS office in Paducah, Ky.

Early forecasts for Christmas called for cold and snow in the region, but forecasters are backing off that prediction. Temperatures are expected to be about 10 degrees below normal during Christmas week, with lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s, but Christmas Day is expected to be warmer.

Occasional cold days are expected to alternate with warmer ones, York said. "It's not an extended cold wave," he said.

Temperatures have been 8 degrees warmer than normal so far in December, said Dr. Al Robertson, retired climatologist at Southeast Missouri State University.

The average for the month's first 17 days was 46.3 degrees compared to the norm of 38.3.

The month has had 1.14 inches of precipitation, well below the 1.8-inch norm. The December average for precipitation is 3.7 inches.

Abnormally cold equatorial Pacific Ocean waters known as La Nina are "probably having some effect on the warm weather we've had," according to York.

Despite the warm December, current NWS models predict a normal winter. The region is straddling the line between the above average temperatures expected to the south and east and the below average temperatures expected north and west. "We should have near normal averages," York said.

Normal highs in mid-January are about 40 and lows bottom out about 10 degrees.

Globally, the Earth has experienced the warmest decade ever, York said. This can be determined through the examination of fossils and through other means. "We can tell climatological history going back thousands of years," he said.

The warm December has farmers in their fields collecting soil samples and applying lime, phosphorous and pot ash, said Gerald Bryan, agronomist for the University of Missouri Extension Service.

Many are taking the opportunity to work on areas with poor drainage. "The past couple of falls they haven't been able to do that because it's been too wet," Bryan said.