Coalition allies reap success at home after war effort

MADRID, Spain -- They bucked the polls and backed the war. And now that bombs have stopped pounding Iraq, they're heaving a sigh of relief.

With the possible exception of Spain, it looks like a return to business as usual for the second-tier countries that supported the U.S.-led campaign. Domestic issues are back in the fore.

Portugal is embroiled in political and child sex abuse scandals. Poles are worried about 19 percent unemployment. In Hungary, Saddam Hussein's fall was largely overshadowed by the excitement about being welcomed into the prosperous, borderless European Union.

Some, like Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, have even seen their popularity rise. "I've always known what Italians were thinking," Berlusconi was quoted Thursday as saying, after a poll published in the daily Corriere della Sera reported 32 percent approve of how his government dealt with the Iraq crisis, up 5.6 percent from March. The April 13 poll said the margin of error was 1 percentage point.

Blair's ratings

British Prime Minister Tony Blair, the main ally in what President Bush called "the coalition of the willing," registered much more striking gains.

An ICM survey published in The Guardian newspaper this week found that 49 percent were satisfied with Blair's performance, up from 35 percent in February. A separate poll by Populus, published last week in The Times, said 64 percent now believe it was right to take military action. Both polls gave a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

Things could still sour for Blair and other supporters of the war if the occupation of Iraq turns messy. "He's got over the first hurdle, which may have been the highest ...," said Anthony Seldon, a political historian at Brighton College. "But there are four or five other hurdles that he has to negotiate successfully."

For eastern European members of the coalition, the political risks were real: French President Jacques Chirac, Europe's main opponent of the war, had warned them that supporting the United States could harm their chances of joining the European Union.

Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski, weathering widespread opposition to the war, apparently kept a tight lid on information about 56 elite commandos he deployed to Iraq. Officials cited security reasons.

Polls indicate a fall in the Polish government approval rating, but analysts say it has nothing to do with war. Rather, people are fed up with politicians they see as selfish and corrupt.

Romania's government allowed U.S. flights from a Romanian airport directly to northern Iraq during the war, and contributed 278 non-combat troops. Many Romanians supported that stance, and got a taste of deja vu from watching TV footage of Saddam's statues being torn down.

"I saw how the statue fell, and it reminded me of Ceausescu's end," said shopkeeper Mariana Ionescu, 50, recalling the ouster of Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989 and the destruction of images of him.

But she was pessimistic about the future. "It will be just like in Romania in Iraq. Some people will get rich and most will die of hunger," she said.

In Spain, Saddam's fall elicited a different reaction. A cartoon in El Mundo, a newspaper which normally backs the government, showed an Iraqi boy peeking out from behind a pile of rubble and smiling as he holds out a daisy. A coalition soldier accepts the flower, and the child's severed hand comes with it.

That angry tone largely persists in Spain. Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar was a high-profile backer of the war and contributed 900 non-combat support troops. But 90 percent of Spaniards were opposed, and some pollsters say Aznar may pay a price in local and regional elections May 25.

Josefina Elias, president of the Instituto Opina polling firm, said Aznar's approval rating stands at just 30 percent, down dramatically in a matter of months.

"Spaniards are still angry, although not as much as before," she said. "My impression is that he will recover somewhat, but remain unpopular."