CLINTON, CARNAHAN LEAD IN POLL

Democrats Bill Clinton and Mel Carnahan hold leads in a poll conducted Thursday in six Southeast Missouri counties. In addition, Missouri term limits issues got overwhelming support while a riverboat gambling question is too close to call.

The poll also revealed a high degree of undecideds in the Missouri lieutenant governor's race, a runaway lead for U.S. Rep. Bill Emerson in his re-election bid, and a virtual dead heat between Betty Hearnes and Peter Kinder in the race for the 27th District Missouri Senate seat.

The poll was conducted by six Southeast Missouri newspapers, including the Southeast Missourian. Tallies were completed by Peter Gordon, professor of marketing in the College of Business Administration at Southeast Missouri State University.

Gordon pointed out that the sample of 197 responses produces a maximum error margin of 6.98 percent with 95 percent confidence.

President

According to the poll, Clinton leads President George Bush 47.2 percent to 30.5 percent, based on a sample of 197 residents in the six-county area (Cape Girardeau, Scott, Perry, Stoddard, Butler and Dunklin counties).

Ross Perot got 7.2 percent in the poll, while 15.2 percent were undecided.

Both males and females gave more support to Clinton, although the females appear to be even stronger supporters of Clinton than Bush.

Governor

The sampled group preferred Carnahan over Republican William Webster 46.2 percent to 34.5 percent. Nineteen percent were undecided in this race.

The undecided respondents in this race were predominantly women. Both men and women favored Carnahan over Webster.

Lieutenant Governor

In a response that featured almost 29 percent undecided, 36 percent preferred Roger Wilson, the Democrat, for lieutenant governor, while 35 percent chose Republican Margaret Kelly. Given the poll's error margin, the difference in these numbers is statistically insignificant.

8th District House

Emerson, seeking his seventh term in the U.S. House, holds a commanding lead in the poll over Democratic challenger Thad Bullock. Emerson had the support of 76.1 percent of the respondents, while Bullock got 16.2 percent. A little less than 8 percent were undecided in this race.

27th District Senate

Polling in this race was done in only three counties, Cape Girardeau, Scott and Perry. With a sample of 101 respondents, Hearnes led 46.5 percent to Kinder's 43.6 percent, with almost 10 percent undecided.

Among female respondents, Hearnes held a slight advantage, while Kinder was preferred by the majority of males responding.

Preference for Kinder was 60 percent to 40 percent in Cape Girardeau County, his home county. Hearnes held a 70-30 percent advantage in Scott County. In Perry County, polling showed that Kinder was favored 54.5 percent to 40.9 percent.

Term Limits

There was overwhelming support for term limits, with 68.5 percent responding "yes" and 21.3 percent responding "no." Roughly 10 percent remain undecided.

There are actually two term-limit questions on the Missouri ballot, one dealing with state lawmakers and another dealing with federal lawmakers. These issues were combined for this poll in the interest of getting a general sense of interest in term limits.

Riverboat Gambling

Polling shows this race is too close to call, with 47.2 percent indicating support for the proposition, while 45.7 percent oppose it. Seven percent remain undecided.

Along gender lines, 58.4 percent of male respondents favored riverboat gambling, compared to 33.8 percent who oppose it; 52.3 percent of females said they intended to vote "no" on the issue, compared to 40 percent who favored it.

There was not one county in the six where more women said yes than no.

The newspapers participating in the poll were the Southeast Missourian in Cape Girardeau, the Daily American Republic in Poplar Bluff, the Standard-Democrat in Sikeston, the Daily Dunklin Democrat in Kennett, the Daily Statesman in Dexter and the Perryville Monitor and Republic.

Gordon pointed out that the overall sample was generated as a result of what a statistician would describe as a "disproportionate, geographically stratified random sample."

The poll was not adjusted proportionally for population in the counties or numbers of registered voters, though Gordon indicated the bias that might be introduced by these factors would be minimal.

"It seems like the results are either so clearly decided that any small bias would be irrelevant, or they are so close we can't call a result anyway," said Gordon.

Overall, Gordon said the poll should provide "an excellent view of how the electorate feel now."