Chirac has won hearts and minds over Iraq

PARIS -- President Jacques Chirac has won worldwide praise as a champion of peace over Iraq, but he has also steered France into a confrontation with the United States that could damage French interests and prestige.

For France, the diplomatic crisis over Iraq has been a triumphant vindication of its claim to be a global leader, letting it stand up to the world's only superpower and portray itself as speaking for much of the globe.

"France is back!" Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin exclaimed after mass protests around the world last month against war with Iraq. "France is heard. She is being followed. She has confidence in herself. France is being what is expected of her: the bearer of the message of humanity."

France has headed opposition in the U.N. Security Council, the European Union and NATO to U.S. and British demands to strike at Iraq. Insisting Iraq can still be disarmed peacefully, the French have played the key role in trying to block Anglo-American efforts in the Security Council to obtain a resolution that would open the way for war.

Paris the pivotal player

While Russia, China and Germany also oppose war with Iraq, Paris is seen by diplomats as the pivotal player because of concerns it might use its Security Council veto to block the U.S.-British resolution on war. Russia and China, which also have vetoes, are believed to be hesitant to block Washington unless Paris takes the lead.

For all its criticism of the United States, Paris needs close ties with Washington, a major security and trading partner. The use of the veto would put the French-U.S. relationship on ice -- a price that Chirac may decide is too high for a matter not tied to the defense of France's vital interests.

A French veto in the Security Council also could hobble the United Nations if the United States decides to go its own way. Paris, which depends on its U.N. veto to bolster its claim to be a major power, does not want to see the world body's relevance diminished.

France also does not want the Iraq crisis to split the European Union, over which it claims a leading voice, but where many members states have backed Washington.

Chirac must find a solution that satisfies domestic opinion and simultaneously avoids a major break with Washington and other key allies.

He has never ruled out the possibility of war against Iraq if Saddam Hussein does not disarm. But France may have left itself with little maneuvering room, at home and abroad, because of its diplomatic success in countering Washington.

The great majority of French voters and allies expect Chirac to oppose a war and may not understand if the government reverses its position. Against that, Chirac has to weigh the real risk of being excluded from the winner's table if Washington does attack and swiftly defeat Iraq.

The French strategy is to prevent the U.S.-backed resolution from ever getting the nine votes required for passage by the 15-member Security Council, so it does not have to contemplate using its veto, French analysts say. For now, the battle is a diplomatic one, with the United States and Britain locked in a ferocious tussle with France for the support of the council's six swing votes.

"My belief is that France will do its utmost not to use the veto," said Guillaume Parmentier, director of the French Center on the United States. "They are trying to make sure there aren't nine votes on the other side."

The official French government line is that talk of a veto is premature. But Chirac has also come under pressure from influential supporters who warn France cannot afford to alienate Washington.

"A veto is unimaginable," Claude Goasguen, a senior conservative lawmaker, told daily newspaper Le Monde. "We are not going to break the United Nations and Europe just to save a tyrant." France has not used its veto against the United States since the crisis over the Suez Canal in 1956.

Chirac's best hopes of a solution, internationally and domestically, may be a declaration from chief U.N. weapons inspector Hans Blix that Iraq has failed to cooperate.

"Chirac is really looking for a way not to lose face. If Blix came back to him and said Saddam is not playing the game, I think Chirac would be very happy," said Michael Bruter of the London School of Economics. "But Chirac can't change his mind without a very good reason to do so, and he needs Blix to provide him with one."

Jean-Dominique Guiliani, an analyst with the Robert Schuman Foundation, a political think tank, said whatever the outcome, France's reputation has soared.

"Chirac and (Foreign Minister Dominique) de Villepin have succeeded in their objective -- France's position is known across the world," Guiliani said.