Census Bureau's population report today to decide fate of Missouri's congressional districts

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. -- One of Missouri's nine congressional districts was on the chopping block Monday as officials waited for word about whether the state population was high enough to keep the current congressional delegation.

Losing a seat would mean fewer lawmakers in Washington to advocate for Missourians and seek federal money for local projects. The state would have one less vote for president in the Electoral College, and one less congressional office for Missourians to turn to when trying to resolve problems with federal agencies. Shedding a seat also could alter the state's political landscape by likely forcing out an incumbent member of Congress.

Missouri has been on the bubble between keeping its nine members of Congress and dropping down to eight seats, reflecting a trend as the U.S. population shifts south from the Rust Belt to the Sun Belt. Congressional districts are redrawn across the country every 10 years.

The U.S. Census Bureau planned today to release its population report that will be the basis for redistricting.

In Missouri, the loss of a congressional seat could be particularly problematic for Democrats because the drawing of new districts -- no matter how many there are -- falls to the state legislature in Jefferson City where Republicans now hold historic majorities in the House and Senate.

The state most recently lost a congressional district after the 1980 census, which prompted Missouri to drop from 10 seats to the current nine. That consolidation helped cost Republican Wendell Bailey his seat in Congress when he lost in the 1982 election to Democrat Ike Skelton.

Some have speculated the loss of a district this year could create a similar situation for Democratic U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan, who represents a St. Louis-area seat that stretches south into Jefferson and Ste. Genevieve counties. Carnahan, who won re-election in a tightly contested campaign, said he will work to ensure the new districts are fair and allow for strong representation in his region.

"My hope is that everyone involved is focused solely on making sure the map is drawn in a way that best serves the people and communities of Missouri," Carnahan said. "After all, you have to draw the lines according to where the people are."

Missouri's other Democratic members of Congress are Lacy Clay, who represents St. Louis County and St. Louis city, and Emanuel Cleaver, who holds a Kansas City-area district. Republicans soon will hold the state's six other congressional districts, including in western Missouri where Vicky Hartzler knocked off Skelton in November.

The chances for significant changes to Missouri's districts is lessened if Missouri keeps nine and state lawmakers do not need to reconfigure the entire map, said George Connor, head of the political science department at Missouri State University in Springfield.

While Republican lawmakers still would have a political incentive to alter districts to help GOP candidates, there would be less justification without the loss of a seat.

Lloyd Smith, the executive director for the Missouri Republican Party, said the GOP wants fair congressional districts and that he hopes Republicans will be able to keep six congressional seats. Smith, who has been through several rounds of redistricting, said the entire discussion gets trickier if a seat is lost.

"If we go from nine members of Congress to eight members of Congress, it will make the process more difficult, absolutely," he said.