Carville, Matalin say primary season 'incomprehensible'

Watch video of James Carville and Mary Matalin

Dashes of humor spiced an evening of political commentary and insight as Mary Matalin and James Carville kept an audience of more than 1,000 in their seats to the end of their 66-minute appearance Tuesday at the Show Me Center.

With nods to Missouri politicos and hometown pundits, Matalin, a conservative Republican, and her husband, Carville, a liberal Democrat, agreed on one essential truth for the 2008 political season -- few people alive has ever seen anything like it.

Matalin and Carville made their marks in politics leading major political campaigns, reaching the pinnacle of the craft in 1992. She was a top operative in President George H. W. Bush's losing re-election campaign while Carville was the mastermind of then Arkansas-Gov. Bill Clinton's winning effort to oust Bush.

Matalin took the microphone first, speaking for more than half an hour. She noted that Missouri is the essence of a swing state, the "epicenter" of politics.

Democrat James Carville reacted to his wife's remarks prior to discussing politics Tuesday night at the Show Me Center. (Fred Lynch)

"Every single initial strategy of this amazing primary season of every candidate on both sides has failed," Matalin said. "The reason is the same for the pundits and the strategists -- we don't know what we are doing in this cycle."

There are no templates or models that can account for the massive increase in interest and voter turnout during the primaries, Matalin said.

Carville agreed, noting that the turnout numbers defy explanation. "What we are watching is not historic, what we are watching is not groundbreaking. What we are watching is incomprehensible."

In a session with reporters prior to their appearance, both were asked the same question -- what does the turnout in Cape Girardeau County on Feb. 5 say about the this political year? In the presidential primary, 7,975 Democrats cast ballots, nearly three times the number from 2004. And on the GOP side, more than 11,100 voters went to the polls, an almost 50 percent increase over the turnout in 2000, the last time the Republican nomination was contested.

Those figures, both said, are similar to the results elsewhere in the nation. Massive increases in turnout are confounding pollsters, campaigns and pundits. But the unmistakable trend, Carville noted, is that turnout increases are higher and more motivated among Democrats. "It is staggering the turnout we are seeing."

Matalin, however, dismissed the long-term effect and said the results in February aren't a sign for November. "In four of the last five Republican victories for the White House, there was lower turnout" in the Republican primaries, she said.

Flashes of humor kept the audience -- organizers set up for 1,300 and almost every seat was filled -- chuckling, sometimes with outbursts of raucuous laghter. For Carville, the jokes were often at his own expense as he told family stories.

One episode took place after he was pulled over for speeding on a Sunday after the pair had been guests on "Meet The Press," Carville said. They had a particularly nasty exchange on the air, he said, and as he challenged the assertions of a Virginia State Police trooper over his speed and seat belt violations, Matalin wasn't helping.

Finally, he said, he had enough and turned to Matalin and shouted "Why don't you just shut up?"

The trooper, with a concerned look, asked: "Lady, does he talk to you like that all the time?"

"No, officer," Carville reported Matalin as replying in a sweet voice. "Only when he's been drinking."

Matalin tossed a few barbs at Carville as well, but also told more than one political joke, such as when she said the presumptive GOP nominee, U.S. Sen. John McCain of Arizona, needs a young vice presidential running mate. McCain, who is 71, would be the oldest president ever elected to his first term.

"At John's age, he might need a potential organ donor," Matalin said.

Along with the humor and the overview of the political season, both offered handicapping reports on the strengths and weaknesses of the remaining major candidates.

For Matalin, McCain has cemented his status as the party's top contender by reasserting his connections to the conservative base. After much criticism, she said he's placated many of those concerns and credited radio commentator Rush Limbaugh, a Cape Girardeau native, as well as others for pushing McCain to the right.

The effect, she said, was "pushing him back to where he needs to be."

U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, Matalin said, remains the Democratic Party's best candidate despite a string of losses to U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois. But it will be tough to overcome Obama's momentum, she said.

For Carville, the differences between McCain and the radio talk show hosts is more than a battle at the top -- the fight shows a deep distrust of McCain among the GOP base that will be difficult, if not impossible, to overcome. "There is a problem between John McCain and the Republican street," he said. "They don't much care for him, and he doesn't much care for them."

rkeller@semissourian.com

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