CAPE GIRARDEAU REGION NOT IN DROUGHT ZONE

A few days of light-to-moderate rains have dampened much of the immediate Southeast Missouri area, eclipsing some of the drought conditions here, which have started to intensify in some areas of the United States.

Near drought conditions have plagued parts of the Midwest, including the metropolitan St. Louis area, which has been limited to about 4.5 inches of rain during the first two months of 2000, according to the weather service office in St. Louis.

Meanwhile, in the Southeast Missouri, rains of up to 10.5 inches have accumulated through mid-March, and the area is not listed as a serious drought site on the National Drought Mitigation Center's latest drought map.

The latest map puts St. Louis on the border between areas of "drought, first stage," which precipitation is six inches below normal for six months, resulting in less than normal soil moisture.

Southeast Missouri, which went through one three-month period last July, August and September with only three days of showers, totaling about 1.4 inches suffered some drought conditions and dry pastures.

Many farmers suffered drought conditions, say a number of agronomists throughout Southeast Missouri, including Gerald Bryan with the Cape County Extension office.

Following flooding in 1998, and the drought last year, farmers don't quite know what to expect this year.

The drought conditions led to lower yields and lower prices. The poor yields were a repeat of 1998, when flood damage saw farmers attempting to replant soybean crops two or three times in one season.

Every county in the state was declared a disaster area.

Some counties in the Southeast sector, which were irrigated, did have decent yields last year, but in many counties where corn and soybeans were not irrigated, crops and production were poor.

Many farmers applied for the federal crop loss disaster assistance program following the 1999 crop season. It helped them survive, said Terry Birk, director of Cape Girardeau County's Farm Service Agency.

Another factor that hurt livestock in 1999 was dry pastures. With nothing to graze, cattle were fed hay as early as August last year instead of December, creating extra expenses.

Early corn did well in Cape Girardeau County, said Birk, but many other crops were hurt.

"1999 was a year we didn't need," said Charles Kruse, president of the Missouri Farm Bureau, and a farmer near Dexter, in reference to the drought conditions. Farm commodity prices were already down, and many farmers were coming off a bad year in 1998.

Missouri Gov. Mel Carnahan sought assistance from the U.S. Department of Agriculture for the state's 114 counties, which were later declared disaster areas by Agriculture Secretary Dan Glickman,

The designation makes low-interest USDA loans available to farmers in these counties as well as contiguous counties in adjacent states, to cover losses from excessive heat and drought.

The same problems could exist in many counties this year.

Parts of the Midwest and much of the South are already in a drought that is likely to intensify this spring, once again threatening crops and water supplies, government officials said this month.

"The drought of 1999 remains with us in the new century and data indicate drought conditions are probably going to get worse before they get better," said Commerce Secretary William Daley.

Illinois is keeping check on conditions.

The statewide precipitation in Illinois from July to December was 12.95 inches, compared to the long-term average of 19.4 inches for the same period.

"The deficit in precipitation during the July to December period was substantial," said Illinois State Water Survey Chief, Derek Winstanley. "This lowers stream flow, reservoir levels, groundwater levels and soil moister," he said.

The Illinois EPA is recommending officials of surface water supplies start planning for possible water shortages in the coming months.

"We're already urging water supply officials to start assessing current and projected water use, and review plans to reduce water use and developing plans for use reduction and conservation," said Jim Park, chief of EPA Bureau of Water Supply.

Typically, Illinois officials say an extended drought will last for 18 to 20 months over a large geographic area.

Weather scientists blame the dry weather on La Nina, the weather pattern that is related to cooler-than-normal temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. La Nina is expected to linger for several months at least.

The hardest-hit states are expected to be Arizona, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama, Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois and Indiana.

Again, Missouri was not listed in the heavy drought expectations.

It's going to take a large, large amount of precipitation to end the drought and "we don't see anything on the horizon to bring that in," said Jack Kelly, director of the National Weather Service, when it released its drought forecast.

A drought occurs somewhere in the country every year, typically costing about $6 billion in damage to crops and businesses. But this is the first year the government has attempted to forecast where and how droughts will develop. Scientists say that more sophisticated data collection is making that possible.

On the positive side, officials said the dry conditions mean there is little likelihood of spring flooding.

Agriculture Department officials said it is too early to tell whether this year's drought will have any impact on commodity or food prices. However, more than 60 percent of the winter wheat crop in Texas is rated no better than poor.

As of now the jump in fuel prices is expected to have a bigger impact on farm income. The high prices are likely to add as much as $3 billion to farmers' fuel expenses, which last year were about $6.4 billion, USDA economists said last week.