Cape County shows lower September revenue; inflation on 'pause,' SEMO economist says

Cape Girardeau County Treasurer Roger Hudson, in reporting Thursday on September monies collected by the state Department of Revenue, noted the county's four tax fund balances — general revenue, Proposition 1, Law Enforcement/Public Safety Tax and use tax — are all down from the same month one year ago.

• General revenue: $827,086.75, down 4.7% from September 2021
• Proposition 1: $827,086.79, down 4.7%
• Law Enforcement/Public Safety: $827,388.41, down 4.5%

A steeper year-to-year decline is seen in the county's use tax, with revenue devoted to the new county courthouse in Jackson: $250,020.19, down 11.8%.

While the September-to-September comparison shows a drop in revenue, a much different story was told last month.

Turnabout

In August, in stark contrast to current metrics, general revenue was up 54% year-to-year with other fund accounts showing similar double-digit jumps.

Proposition 1, which funds road and bridge improvements, was up 55.4% compared to August 2021.

Law Enforcement/Public Safety Tax, OK'd by voters in 2020, was up 42.2%, while the use tax — the county's levy on online and out-of-state sales, jumped 17.3%.

Presiding Commissioner Clint Tracy, during the most recent meeting of the three-member County Commission, wondered aloud whether the latest statistics showing a falloff in revenue may indicate a "cooling" of inflation.

Economist

Southeast Missouri State University's David Yaskewich, chairman of SEMO's Accounting, Economics and Finance Department, said Friday he hesitates to use such language to describe the change.

"I wouldn't even use the term 'cooldown,' because there appears to be more of a pause going on," said Yaskewich, who noted the consumer price index showed virtually no change in the cost of living between the months of June and July.

"I'd want to see more months before we say there's a slowdown, because, remember, inflation is still quite high," he said.

Yaskewich cited a Philadelphia survey of economic forecasters, which indicates inflation — the catchall term describing the general price increase of goods and services in an economy — is expected to go down over the next 12 months.

The economist, who came to SEMO in 2012, said he will be watching closely for Tuesday's new consumer price index report for August from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

CPI did not change in July despite a 7.7% drop in gas prices. Economists say the fall in the price at the pump was offset with higher food and housing costs.