Bush, Kerry battle set in select states

WASHINGTON -- President Bush versus John Kerry. What promises to be a contentious eight-month battle for the White House opened Wednesday with the incumbent buffeted by dangers in postwar Iraq and the loss of jobs at home, yet holding the upper hand on money and Electoral College math.

Partisans from both parties are already fretting over their candidate's chances.

"President Bush has the best odds, but incumbency has its disadvantages too," said Tom Slade, former chairman of the Florida Republican Party. "There's four years of record to throw rocks at, and I've often debated with myself over which I would rather be -- the incumbent or challenger."

"This election might settle that question," Slade said with a sigh, "for better or worse."

If so, it may be settled in Florida and 15 states that Bush won or lost by 5 percentage points or fewer in 2000 -- the Midwest states of Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin; the Northwest's Washington and Oregon; Pennsylvania, Maine and New Hampshire in the Northeast; Western states Nevada and New Mexico, and the South's Tennessee and Arkansas.

Tennessee may be the only 2000 battleground that doesn't qualify. If Al Gore couldn't win his Republican-leaning home state, Kerry probably won't, Democratic and GOP strategists said.

Two states Bush won by just 6 percentage points -- Arizona and West Virginia -- could be more competitive this year.

"The Hispanic influence, as well as massive immigration from California, has moderated the politics of this state," said state Sen. Ken Cheuvront, an Arizona Democrat.

In his first ad blitz, an extraordinary $10.5 million buy, Bush is targeting voters in 16 battleground states from 2000 -- minus Tennessee but plus West Virginia and Arizona. In a show of strength, he's even running ads in the traditionally Democratic state of Delaware, which Gore won by double digits in 2000.

"We know this election is going to be decided in a limited number of states in the Electoral College and we've made decisions based on that," said Matthew Dowd, the campaign's chief strategist.

Changes in the electoral map favor Bush. The president won 30 states four years ago, worth 271 electoral votes in 2000. Reapportionment has increased their value to 278, without a vote being cast.

Kerry's base consists of 11 states plus the District of Columbia won most easily by Gore in 2000, worth 168 electoral votes Nov. 2.

Besides those Democratic strongholds, Kerry's strategists believe he can add Michigan, Washington state and Maine to pass the 200-vote threshold. Claimed by Gore in 2000, they may be the ripest Democratic targets among all tossup states, but Bush is competing hard for them.

The next tier of Kerry targets are even tougher: Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Oregon, Wisconsin and New Mexico. Winning all six, no easy task, would put Kerry within striking distance of the coveted 270 electoral votes.

He would still need to win at least one of the most competitive states -- Nevada, New Hampshire, West Virginia, Missouri, Arizona, Ohio and Florida are among the targets.

Other Southern tossup states may come into play for Kerry, but only if he's doing unexpectedly well everywhere else. Martha Dixon of the Democratic National Committee gave Bush a good shot in Arkansas.

"With all his problems, he's still the president -- and that counts for something," Dixon said. "He gets to fly around the country on his big plane and talk big talk."

Money may be Bush's biggest edge. He has raised more than $150 million, shattering his own record and giving him easy cash to try to define Kerry as a soft-on-terrorism, tax-raising, flip-flopping liberal.

Kerry, who aides say raised more than $1 million since wrapping up the nomination, is still far behind Bush in the dollar dash. Kerry must count on the Democratic National Committee and independent interest groups to help him compete. In its most recent report, the campaign said it had $2.1 million cash on hand as of Feb. 1, with debts of $7.2 million.