Bush, allies trying to undercut AARP on Social Security

PORTSMOUTH, N.H. -- President Bush and his allies are working hard to nullify the power of the AARP, the mighty lobby for older Americans that is the archenemy to his Social Security plan.

Everywhere he goes, Bush promises the group's members they won't be touched by his plan, while his backers charge that AARP is out of touch and prone to scare tactics.

Polling makes clear that young people like Bush's plan for personal accounts in Social Security while old people don't, so Bush is hoping to shift the debate away from the old and toward the young.

In an airport hangar here, college senior Amy Partin joined the president onstage to serve as a human reminder of the future. Bush hit his central message over and over -- people over 55 will not be affected by changes he's proposing. He used the phrase "nothing changes" four times.

"Once the seniors realize nothing changes, the voices you'll hear from are the Amys of America," Bush told 2,000 people assembled recently for one of a string of campaign-style events pitching his Social Security plan.

At the same time, conservatives allied with Bush are trying to undercut the AARP.

"AARP doesn't care about the children or grandchildren of their own membership, and I think that's very shortsighted," Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., contended Tuesday.

Last week, House Majority Leader Tom DeLay called the group's opposition to personal accounts irresponsible and hypocritical, adding that it sells mutual funds to its own members.

And a group that bills itself as an alternative to the AARP, USA Next, has run Internet ads suggesting AARP is a liberal front for everything from gay marriage to gun control, and the group's leader says a wave of direct mail, TV and radio ads are coming next.

It's risky. Polling shows that the AARP is more respected than any other prominent voice in the Social Security debate, including Bush, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and congressional leaders of both parties.

"You have to be careful who you attack," said Republican strategist Ed Rollins, who recently conducted a bipartisan poll on Social Security. "Going after the AARP is nuts. Don't make them the enemy."

AARP agrees with Bush that Social Security faces long-term financial problems and says it wants to be part of the discussion about how to fix them. Officials note that they helped Bush pass a prescription drug bill for Medicare opposed by many Democrats (a move that cost the group some 60,000 members). Further, AARP chief Bill Novelli recently met with Karl Rove, Bush's top political adviser, and Al Hubbard, his chief economic adviser, to talk about Social Security.

But the AARP deeply opposes the centerpiece of the White House plan: allowing younger workers to divert a portion of their Social Security payroll taxes into personal accounts that could be invested in the stock market in trade for reduced guaranteed benefits.

The group has spent some $10 million in newspaper advertisements advising: "If you have a problem with the sink, you don't tear down the entire house."

Polling finds that overall support for the Bush plan is falling, though younger people are more supportive than older people. With this in mind, the AARP is planning television and radio ads targeted toward young people to run during the next congressional recess in late March.

"We feel like they have both the largest stake in this debate and the least amount of information about it," said John Rother, AARP's policy director.

In his speeches, Bush never criticizes the AARP directly, but USA Next does.

That group, which claims a membership of 1.5 million and a budget of $10 million, has run a stream of Internet ads assailing the AARP. Chairman Charlie Jarvis said TV and radio ads will soon run in states identified as pro-free market, with a large direct mail campaign starting in the next couple of weeks.

"They are a Goliath of left liberal lobbying groups," reads a draft letter Jarvis is preparing. "USA Next is admittedly a David against the Goliath but I like the way that story ends."

Rother says he's not worried.

"We've been around a long time and are a pretty well-known organization. I don't think people are going to believe false things," he said.

Bush's effort to undercut the AARP is subtler, simply promising older people that their benefits are safe. The AARP responds that Bush might mean that, but he can't guarantee it. They say that his plan for private accounts will cost so much money -- up to $2 trillion -- that it will create pressure on the government to cut spending, perhaps including benefits for current retirees.

Even if seniors are protected, many still care enough about Social Security to get involved in the debate. It's not simply a matter of self-interest, said Jon Krosnick, a political psychologist at Stanford University.

"Older people care about other old people as well as everyone else who will be old in the future," he said. "Many of them understand the political power they have as a group."

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On the Net:

AARP: http://www.aarp.org

USA Next: http://www.usanext.org