Britain's backing Prime minister stakes his future on Iraq

LONDON -- With much of Britain opposed to war over Iraq, Prime Minister Tony Blair is poised on a diplomatic razor blade, staking his political future on backing the United States against Saddam Hussein.

A long and bloody war pitting America and Britain against Iraq in the face of worldwide opposition will almost certainly see Blair ousted by his own party, sooner or later, or facing defeat in an early election. Blair insists he has no doubts and is ready to risk everything.

"People ask me why I am, in a sense, risking everything politically on this issue, but I say to them in all honesty that I do not want to be the prime minister to whom people point the finger ... and say ... 'you took the easy way out,'" Blair told the House of Commons on Feb. 3.

Britain has sent 40,000 troops to the Gulf to back U.S. forces, the only ally to provide substantial military support for Washington.

Blair's unflinching backing of President Bush is a nightmare come true for many in his left-of-center Labor Party, especially its vocal anti-American left wing, which sees Washington as an evil superpower. But people from across the British political spectrum are puzzled, asking why war against Iraq is necessary.

Iraq is a threat to the world and must be disarmed, Blair replies. It would also be right to oust Saddam to end the suffering of the Iraqi people, he told a Labor Party meeting on Saturday.

"It is leaving him there that is inhumane," Blair said. "That is why I do not shrink from military action should that indeed be necessary."

London saw a demonstration Saturday against war by a crowd that organizers claimed was 1 million strong though police put the figure at about 750,000. In either case, it was among the largest turnouts in a day of protests around the world.

No sign of doubts

Blair, despite the avalanche of criticism, shows no sign of doubts. Aides say he has been remarkably tranquil, even as opposition has mounted at home and in the United Nations.

Opinion polls show most Britons now oppose war, but about half would back a war if the U.N. approves action. British diplomats are battling to get some form of U.N. approval, pressing the United States to stick with the U.N. Security Council and allow a little more time for weapons inspections. But Blair has indicated he would risk war without a U.N. mandate.

Ultimately, Blair and his supporters are gambling that a war will be swift and relatively bloodless and the public will end up backing Saddam's overthrow. British public opinion has a habit of opposing war and then changing once their forces are in action.

One good television shot "of ordinary Iraqis going out of their minds, welcoming British and American soldiers as liberators can turn things around in a minute," predicted one diplomat, declining to be named.

Britain had been hoping for strong condemnation of Iraq in the Security Council on Friday by U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix. British officials were appalled when Blix said Baghdad was making some progress.

Privately, British diplomats insist the mood behind the scenes at the Security Council is different from the rhetoric of Friday's public session, and it is possible to get some form of backing for action against Iraq.

France is the linchpin of opposition to war. Paris hopes it can use the split over Iraq to assert its leadership of the European Union, force Britain to one side and counter Washington on the global stage, according to the British.

The division of NATO, with France, Germany and Belgium last week blocking a U.S. request for aid in case of war, could aid the French strategy, turning Europe against Washington.

But British diplomats doubt France is willing to stand alone against Washington if Russia and China abstain because of their need for U.S. support on other issues. A lone veto by France would not stop a U.S.-British attack on Iraq and Paris would risk seeing the U.N. -- on which it depends to back its claim to be a world power -- become largely irrelevant.

However, French President Jacques Chirac, while never ruling out war, has won such popular support at home for opposing conflict that it may be difficult for him to change his position, diplomats acknowledge.