Brazil on the cusp of sharp move right with Bolsonaro

RIO DE JANEIRO -- Brazilians appear on the cusp of handing the presidency to a brash former army captain who has reminisced fondly about dictatorship, pledged to jail corrupt politicians and promised an all-out war on the drugs and crime plaguing South America's largest nation.

Far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro just missed outright victory in Sunday's vote, and will face former Sao Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad of the leftist Workers' Party in an Oct. 28 runoff. Bolsonaro only needs a few more points to secure victory, but Haddad's supporters vowed Monday to launch a tough fight to make up ground after he finished a distant second in the first round.

The election was a seismic shift for this nation of more than 200 million people, where the left has won the past four elections but deep divisions have opened in the wake of a massive corruption scandal and the impeachment of a president. Brazil's move fits into a global trend among voters -- in the United States and Europe, among other places -- who are choosing anti-establishment and often far-right populist candidates who target minorities and promise a return to "traditional values."

Brazil's direction economically and politically will have a major impact on surrounding countries. It will especially have influence on one of the thorniest issue in the region, Venezuela's economic and social collapse. Bolsonaro has promised a harder line on Venezuela, which millions have fled in recent years.

Bolsonaro's Social and Liberal Party was a tiny, fringe group, but the candidate began surging in the polls earlier this year through his use of social media and carefully orchestrated rallies. Bolsonaro has often praised President Donald Trump, and his campaign took many pages from the U.S. president's playbook, from bashing the mainstream media and political class to using the candidate's adult children as proxies.

Bolsonaro's party took a whopping 52 seats in the lower house of Congress, up from just one in the last election, giving it 10 percent of that house and making it the second-largest party after the Workers' Party, with 56.

Brian Winter, the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly magazine, said the results underscored "the total disappearance of the Brazilian center" and that Bolsonaro seemed almost certain to glide to victory.

Haddad may yet gain the backing of other candidates in the race, but that might just feed Bolsonaro's criticism traditional politicians are only interested in protecting their own. The Workers' Party took to Twitter on Monday with a rallying cry to all those who believe in democracy and vowed to unify the country. But the leftist candidate will struggle to build a broad coalition in such a polarized race.

"If you don't speak to people's anger, you're not going to get any votes," Winter said.

Brazilians have a lot to be angry about. Since 2014, they've watched slack-jawed as prosecutors detailed how many in government manipulated public contracts and promised favors in exchange for billions of dollars in kickbacks and bribes. Much of that focused on the Workers' Party, and many voters cited a desire to root out corruption in their choice of Bolsonaro.

Jana Tessarolo Clemente, a 46-year-old veterinarian from Sao Paulo said she voted for the former army captain "because we're against the Workers' Party more than for Bolsonaro."

"Anyone who lives in Brazil knows that life got worse under the Workers' Party, especially for the middle class," she said.

Brazil has also just emerged from a protracted recession, unemployment is high and crime is rising.

Bolsonaro, whose campaign was called "Brazil above all, God above everyone," has pushed a nostalgic narrative he can bring back better times. Part of that includes likely attempts to roll back the rights of gays and other minorities, and a hard line on issues such as equal pay for women. Bolsonaro has said he would rather have a dead son than a gay one and told a fellow lawmaker in Congress she was "too ugly" to be raped.

To fight the country's rampant crime, he has promised to give police a free hand to shoot first and ask questions later, arguing criminals will be the ones who are scared in his administration. He has vowed to loosen gun laws to allow more people to arm themselves. He has proposed mass privatizations of state companies, a smaller government spending less and a more open economy.

His promises to give police freer rein, his criticism of the social movements and reforms have attempted to make Brazil more inclusive and equal, and his frequent praise for Brazil's 1964-1985 military dictatorship have raised concerns a Bolsonaro government will erode democratic values and rule with an authoritarian hand. He has also indicated he will surround himself with former military officers, such as his running mate who is a retired general.

Many Brazilians fear the most immediate impact might be a significant rise in police violence in a country where police already have a reputation as deadly.

Bolsonaro was expected to come out in front Sunday, but he far outperformed predictions, blazing past competitors with more financing, the institutional backing of traditional parties and much more free air time on television. His first-place finish with 46 percent of the vote, just short of the 50 percent-plus needed for an outright win, came after an unpredictable campaign in which the front-runner, former President Luiz Inacio da Silva, was barred from running after being jailed on a corruption conviction. Bolsonaro himself was stabbed and forced to campaign from a hospital bed for several weeks.