Blunt trails Nixon in race; too close between McCaskill-Talent

ST. LOUIS -- A new poll shows Gov. Matt Blunt trailing potential Democratic challenger Attorney General Jay Nixon in the race for governor, based partly on overwhelming opposition to Medicaid cuts that Blunt's administration has championed.

The St. Louis Post-Dispatch/ KMOV-TV poll released Saturday found no clear leader in the race for the U.S. Senate between State Auditor Claire McCaskill and incumbent Sen. Jim Talent.

The poll of 800 likely Missouri voters showed strong opposition to Medicaid cuts that eliminated about 300,000 residents from the program. But it indicated high support for increasing the state's tobacco taxes and a proposal to protect embryonic stem-cell research in Missouri, if it is allowed by federal law.

The poll, conducted by Maryland-based Research 2000 Monday through Wednesday, has an error margin of 3.5 percentage points. It indicates that Nixon would defeat Blunt if the election were held today, rather than in 2008.

Nixon led Blunt 51 percent to 43 percent, outside the 3.5 margin of error. But a sampling of those who support Nixon, who has not officially declared his candidacy, indicated that they chose him largely based on dissatisfaction with Blunt, the Post-Dispatch reported.

"The best news for Matt Blunt is that he's not up for election this year," said Del Ali, whose firm conducted the poll.

John Hancock, a spokesman for the Missouri Republican party, said the poll showed that Blunt's popularity is moving in a positive direction. He said a poll taken nearly three years before an election helps to show the campaign it's headed in the right direction.

"We're generally gratified that the governor's polling numbers are steadily improving three years before an election," Hancock said.

A spokesman for Nixon did not immediately return a phone call Sunday from The Associated Press.

In the Senate race, the poll showed 47 percent of those questioned favored McCaskill, while 44 percent picked Talent, with the other 9 percent undecided. The difference between the candidates is not considered statistically significant because it is within the 3.5 percent margin of error.

The poll also found a gender gap, with McCaskill holding an 11-point edge among women and Talent with a five-point edge among men.

Talent spokesman Rich Chrismer said it was early in the race and Missourians are not yet focused on the contest.

"Senator Talent's focus is on his job in the U.S. Senate, working with senators on both sides of the aisle for Missouri jobs, health care and the nation's security," Chrismer said.

McCaskill's spokesman, Tony Wyche, said that the poll showed Missourians were attracted to the independent voice McCaskill would bring to the Senate.

"Any pollster will tell you that for an incumbent to be under 50 percent is a clear danger sign," Wyche said. "For him to be where he is shows that in the four years he's had to persuade people, he has failed and people are looking for a change."

For the poll's questions on issues, the results were so lopsided that the margin of error wasn't a factor.

Roughly two-thirds said the Medicaid cuts were "too severe," compared with one in five who thought more cuts were needed and fewer than one in 10 who said the cuts were "about right."

Ali said Blunt and his Republican allies should address the Medicaid issue soon, or he could be in trouble in 2008.

"He's alienated most of the state; he's alienated most of the voters," Ali said.

About two-thirds of those polled support a ballot proposal to increase the state's tobacco taxes by 80 cents a pack on cigarettes, and triple the tax on other tobacco products. Supporters of the effort say most of the money raised from the tax would be used to increase Medicaid payments to hospitals, doctors and other health-care providers.

Ali said support for the tobacco tax may drop after opponents begin campaigning against it.

About two-third of those polled also supported a proposal to protect embryonic stem cell research, an effort being pushed by various Missouri universities and research institutions. Some members of the Missouri legislature are trying to ban stem cell research, saying some forms of the research require the killing of embryos.