Battle for U.S. Senate evenly matched

WASHINGTON -- The contest to win control of the Senate is extraordinarily evenly matched at the start of this election year and hinges on races in about a dozen states.

Democrats have only a one-vote lead in the Senate, meaning the overall outcome could be decided by a single campaign mistake or external factors like the economy.

Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle launched the political season earlier this month with a speech strongly criticizing President Bush's stewardship of the economy. The president fired back that his economic proposals, which emphasize more tax cuts, are the best approach and he promised to block any efforts to raise taxes.

The power struggle between Bush and Daschle, a potential Democratic presidential candidate in 2004, is exemplified by the competitive race in Daschle's home state.

Democrat Tim Johnson, the state's junior senator, will get heavy support from Daschle against Republican John Thune, the state's lone congressman heavily recruited to the Senate race by the White House.

The handful of races considered tossups by most political analysts are evenly split between Democratic incumbents and Republican incumbents.

"We have six tossup races," said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the Cook Political Report. "That's about half of what you had a cycle ago. And the playing field is relatively even."

South Dakota's Johnson, Minnesota's Paul Wellstone and Missouri's Jean Carnahan are the Democratic senators in most analysts' list of tossup states. New Hampshire's Bob Smith, Colorado's Wayne Allard and Tim Hutchinson in Arkansas are the Republicans most often mentioned.

Thirty-four Senate seats are up for election this year -- 20 Republican and 14 Democratic.

No overall advantage

Republicans are defending more seats, but that hasn't given Democrats an overall advantage because many of the seats are in heavily Republican states. Many of the hottest races are in the Midwest and South -- in states won by President Bush in 2000.

Among the additional Democratic seats eyed by Republicans: Sen. Max Cleland in Georgia, where GOP Rep. Saxby Chambliss poses a threat; Sen. Tom Harkin in Iowa likely to face GOP Rep. Greg Ganske; and Sen. Mary Landrieu in Louisiana, though she appears less vulnerable in recent months.

"We've done a remarkable job in the last year of making sure our incumbents are up, running, ready and prepared," said Sen. Patty Murray of Washington, chairwoman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Three Republican senators are retiring: Jesse Helms in North Carolina, Strom Thurmond in South Carolina and Phil Gramm in Texas.

These three states went for Bush in 2000, but the Carolinas have Democratic governors as well as interesting Senate candidates and offer a chance for competitive races.

In North Carolina, former presidential candidate Elizabeth Dole is the best-known Republican running. Onetime Clinton chief of staff Erskine Bowles is the best-known Democrat.

In South Carolina, GOP Rep. Lindsey Graham, who made his name during the Clinton impeachment hearings, will be favored. But he could get a surprisingly strong challenge from Democrat Alex Sanders, a colorful former lawmaker and college president.

Jim Talent a prize recruit

The euphoria Democrats experienced in May after taking the Senate with Vermont Sen. James Jeffords' switch from GOP to independent faded through the summer as Republicans scored candidate recruiting successes.

Thune in South Dakota, St. Paul Mayor Norm Coleman in Minnesota and former congressman Jim Talent in Missouri were the prize GOP recruits.

But Republicans failed to convince former Gov. Marc Racicot, now the incoming GOP national chairman, to challenge Montana's Democratic Sen. Max Baucus.

And in New Jersey, Democratic Sen. Robert Torricelli's hand was strengthened when Republicans didn't come up with a big-name candidate and prosecutors decided not to pursue campaign finance charges against him.

Still, Democrats have been scrambling for a winning strategy in recent months. They were all set at the end of summer to press their case on the economy and domestic issues like Social Security and health care.

But the political landscape shifted dramatically after the terrorist attacks. Issues favoring Republicans like defense and foreign policy moved to the forefront as Democrats' top issues like Social Security and health care receded.

Democrats were alarmed when recent polls suggested the GOP had gained a slight advantage on handling the economy -- the issue Democrats planned to make a campaign centerpiece.

Soon after that, Daschle launched the assault on Bush's economic policies. The Democratic strategy could backfire, said Dan Allen of the Republicans' senatorial committee.

"If people are losing jobs, they want action and not partisan rhetoric," Allen said.

The stakes of Daschle's economic gambit are high for Democrats. Republicans have a slight advantage in the number of top Democratic targets, political analyst Stuart Rothenberg suggested.

"Democrats have lots of good target races in the second and third tier," he said, mentioning Republican senators Gordon Smith of Oregon and Susan Collins of Maine. "But they need a breeze at their back."